“Where is the fuel car bad, why should we develop new energy vehicles?” This should be the primary question most people think about the current “wind direction” of the automobile industry. Under the support of the grand slogans of “energy depletion”, “energy saving and emission reduction” and “manufacturing catching up”, China’s need to develop new energy sources has not yet been perceived and recognized by society.
Indeed, after decades of continuous progress in internal combustion engine vehicles, the current mature manufacturing system, market support and low-cost and high-quality products make it difficult to understand why the industry has to leave this “flat road” and turn to development. New energy is a “mud trail” that is not yet risky. Why should we develop a new energy industry? This simple and straightforward question is the incomprehension and unknown of all of us.
Seven years ago, in the “China Energy Policy 2012 White Paper”, the national strategic plan “will firmly develop new energy and renewable energy” will be clarified. Since then, China’s auto industry has changed rapidly, and it has quickly switched from a fuel vehicle strategy to a new energy strategy. After that, various types of new energy products linked to “subsidies” quickly entered the market, and the voice of doubt began to surround new energy. industry.
The voice of questioning came from different angles, and the topic also directly led to the upstream and downstream of the industry. What is the current status of China’s traditional energy and renewable energy? Can China’s automobile manufacturing industry bend overtaking? How to deal with new energy vehicles that are retired in the future, and whether pollution exists? The more doubts, the less confidence, how to find the real status quo behind these problems, the first quarter of the column will target the important carrier around the industry – battery.
Columns are unavoidable “energy issues”
Unlike a fuel car, gasoline does not require a carrier (if the fuel tank does not count), but “electricity” needs to be carried by the battery. Therefore, if you want to go back to the source of the industry, then “electricity” is the first step in the development of new energy. The issue of electricity is directly linked to the energy issue. There is a clear question at present: Is vigorously promoting new energy sources really because China’s unified energy reserve is imminent? So before we really talk about the development of batteries and new energy, we should respond to questions about China’s current question of “using electricity or using oil”.
Question 1: The status quo of traditional Chinese energy
Unlike the reason why humans first tried pure electric vehicles 100 years ago, the new revolution was caused by the shift from “traditional fuel” to “renewable energy”. There are different “versions” on the interpretation of China’s energy status on the Internet, but many aspects of the data show that China’s traditional energy reserves are not as unbearable and worrying as the net transmission, and the oil reserves closely related to automobiles are also discussed by the public. One of the most topics.
According to the data in China Energy Report 2018, although domestic oil production is decreasing, China has been in a stable state in terms of energy import trade with the increase in oil consumption. This may prove that at least the current development of new energy is not directly related to the “oil reserve.”
But indirectly connected? In the context of stable energy trade, China’s traditional energy dependence is still high. Among the total energy imports, crude oil accounts for 66% and coal accounts for 18%. Compared with 2017, crude oil imports continue to grow rapidly. In 2018, China’s crude oil imports reached 460 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. Crude oil dependence on foreign countries reached 71%, which means that more than two-thirds of China’s crude oil is dependent on imports.
After the development of new energy industries, China’s oil consumption trend continues to slow down, but compared with 2017, China’s oil consumption still rose by 3.4%. In terms of crude oil production capacity, there was a significant decline in 2016-2018 compared to 2015, and the change of direction increased the dependence on oil trade imports.
Under the current situation of China’s traditional energy reserve “passive dependence”, it is also hoped that the development of new energy industry will also change the energy consumption structure. In 2018, the consumption of clean energy such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and wind power accounted for 22.1% of total energy consumption, which has been increasing for many years.
In the transition to clean energy in traditional energy sources, the global low-carbon, carbon-free target is currently consistent, just as European and American auto brands are now clearing the “time to stop selling fuel vehicles”. However, countries have different dependence on traditional energy sources, and China’s “lack of crude oil resources” is one of the problems in the transition to clean energy. Zhu Xi, director of the Energy Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: “Because of the different eras of countries, China is still in the coal era, the world has entered the oil and gas era, and the process of moving towards a renewable energy system in the future is certainly different. China may cross oil and gas. Times.” Source: Car House
Post time: Nov-04-2019