Ngokombiko okhishwe yi-TrendForce Consulting, njengoba i-Anson, i-Infineon namanye amaphrojekthi wokubambisana nabakhiqizi bezimoto namandla ecacile, imakethe yezingxenye zamandla we-SiC iyonke izokhushulelwa kumadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.28 ngo-2023 (inothi lasekhaya le-IT: cishe ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-15.869 ikhuphuke ngo-41.4% unyaka nonyaka.
Ngokombiko, ama-semiconductors esizukulwane sesithathu ahlanganisa i-silicon carbide (SiC) ne-gallium nitride (GaN), futhi i-SiC yenza ama-80% yenani lokukhiphayo lilonke. I-SiC ifanele i-voltage ephezulu kanye nezimo zezicelo zamanje eziphezulu, ezingathuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kwezimoto zikagesi kanye nohlelo lwemishini yamandla avuselelekayo.
Ngokusho kwe-TrendForce, izicelo ezimbili eziphezulu zezingxenye zamandla e-SiC yizimoto zikagesi namandla avuselelekayo, afinyelele ku-$ 1.09 billion kanye ne-$ 210 million ngokulandelana ku-2022 (okwamanje mayelana ne-RMB7.586 billion). Ibalelwa ku-67.4% kanye no-13.1% wesamba semakethe yengxenye yamandla ye-SiC.
Ngokusho kwe-TrendForce Consulting, imakethe yezingxenye zamandla e-SiC kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku-$5.33 billion ngo-2026 (okwamanje cishe amabhiliyoni angama-37.097 yuan). Izicelo ezijwayelekile zisathembele ezimotweni zikagesi namandla avuselelekayo, nenani eliphumayo lezimoto zikagesi lifinyelela ku-$3.98 billion (okwamanje mayelana ne-27.701 billion yuan), i-CAGR (isilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esiyinhlanganisela) esingaba ngu-38%; Amandla avuselelekayo afinyelele ezigidini ezingama-410 zamadola aseMelika (cishe ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-2.854 njengamanje), i-CAGR ecishe ibe ngu-19%.
U-Tesla akazange avimbe ama-opharetha we-SiC
Ukukhula kwemakethe ye-silicon carbide (SiC) eminyakeni emihlanu edlule kuncike kakhulu kuTesla, umkhiqizi wokuqala wemishini yokusebenzisa izinto ezimotweni zikagesi, kanye nomthengi omkhulu namuhla. Ngakho-ke lapho isanda kumemezela ukuthi ithole indlela yokunciphisa inani le-SiC elisetshenziswe kumamojula wamandla wesikhathi esizayo ngamaphesenti angu-75, imboni yaphonswa ukwesaba, futhi uhlu lwabadlali abakhulu bahlupheka.
Ukusikwa ngamaphesenti angama-75 kuzwakala kuthusa, ikakhulukazi ngaphandle kokuqukethwe okuningi, kodwa kunezimo ezingaba khona ngemuva kwalesi simemezelo - azikho eziphakamisa ukuncipha okumangazayo kwesidingo sezinto ezibonakalayo noma imakethe iyonke.
Isimo 1: Amadivayisi ambalwa
I-inverter ye-48-chip ku-Tesla Model 3 isekelwe kubuchwepheshe obusha kakhulu obutholakala ngesikhathi sokuthuthukiswa (2017). Kodwa-ke, njengoba i-SiC ecosystem ikhula, kunethuba lokunweba ukusebenza kwama-substrates e-SiC ngokusebenzisa imiklamo yesistimu ethuthuke kakhulu enokuhlanganiswa okuphezulu. Nakuba kungenakwenzeka ukuthi ubuchwepheshe obubodwa buzonciphisa i-SiC ngo-75%, intuthuko ehlukahlukene yokupakisha, ukupholisa (okungukuthi, izinhlangothi ezimbili kanye ne-liquid-cooled), kanye nokwakhiwa kwedivayisi eshaneli kungaholela kumadivayisi ahlangene, asebenza kangcono. Ngokungangabazeki u-Tesla uzohlola ithuba elinjalo, futhi isibalo esingu-75% cishe sibhekisela ekwakhiweni kwe-inverter edidiyelwe kakhulu enciphisa inani lokufa elilisebenzisayo lisuka ku-48 liye ku-12. Kodwa-ke, uma lokhu kunjalo, akufani nokufana okunjalo. ukuncishiswa okuhle kwezinto ze-SiC njengoba kuye kwaphakanyiswa.
Khonamanjalo, amanye ama-Oems abethula izimoto ezingama-800V ngo-2023-24 asazothembela ku-SiC, okuyikhandidethi elingcono kakhulu lamadivayisi anamandla aphezulu kanye namadivayisi anesilinganiso samandla kagesi aphezulu kule ngxenye. Ngenxa yalokho, i-Oems ingase ingaboni umthelela wesikhashana ekungeneni kwe-SiC.
Lesi simo sigqamisa uguquko ekugxilweni kwemakethe yezimoto ye-SiC kusuka ezintweni ezingavuthiwe kuya ekuhlanganisweni kwemishini nezinhlelo. Amamojula wamandla manje adlala indima ebalulekile ekuthuthukiseni izindleko zizonke kanye nokusebenza, futhi bonke abadlali abakhulu esikhaleni se-SiC banamabhizinisi amamojula amandla anamandla abo okupakisha angaphakathi - okuhlanganisa i-onsemi, i-STMicroelectronics ne-Infineon. I-Wolfspeed manje inweba ngaphezu kwezinto ezingavuthiwe kumadivayisi.
Isimo sesi-2: Izimoto ezincane ezinamandla aphansi
U-Tesla ubesebenza ngemoto entsha esezingeni lokungena ukwenza izimoto zayo zisebenziseke kalula. I-Model 2 noma i-Model Q izoshibhile futhi iminyene kunezimoto zabo zamanje, futhi izimoto ezincane ezinezici ezimbalwa ngeke zidinge okuqukethwe kwe-SiC okuningi ukuze zizinike amandla. Kodwa-ke, amamodeli ayo akhona kungenzeka ukuthi agcine ukwakheka okufanayo futhi asadinga amanani amakhulu e-SiC iyonke.
Kubo bonke ubuhle bayo, i-SiC iyimpahla ebizayo, futhi ama-Oem amaningi azwakalise isifiso sokunciphisa izindleko. Manje njengoba i-Tesla, i-OEM enkulu kunazo zonke esikhaleni, iphawule ngamanani, lokhu kungase kufake ingcindezi kuma-IDM ukuze ehlise izindleko. Ingabe isimemezelo sikaTesla singaba isu lokushayela izixazululo ezincintisana kakhulu? Kuzokujabulisa ukubona ukuthi imboni isabela kanjani emasontweni/ezinyangeni ezizayo…
Ama-ID asebenzisa amasu ahlukene ukuze anciphise izindleko, njengokuthola i-substrate kubahlinzeki abahlukene, ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa ngokwandisa umthamo nokushintshela kumawafa amakhulu (6 “kanye no-8″). Ingcindezi ekhuphukile kungenzeka isheshise ijika lokufunda labadlali kulo lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka kule ndawo. Ukwengeza, izindleko ezikhuphukayo zingenza i-SiC ithengeke kakhulu hhayi kwabanye abakhiqizi bezimoto kuphela kodwa nakwezinye izinhlelo zokusebenza, ezingaqhubekisela phambili ukwamukelwa kwayo.
Isimo sesi-3: Faka okunye esikhundleni se-SIC
Abahlaziyi benkampani iYole Intelligence babheke ngeso lokhozi obunye ubuchwepheshe obungase buncintisane neSiC ezimotweni ezisebenza ngogesi. Isibonelo, i-SiC ene-grooved inikeza ukuminyana kwamandla aphezulu - sizoyibona ithatha indawo ye-SiC eyisicaba esikhathini esizayo?
Ngo-2023, ama-Si IGBT azosetshenziswa kuma-inverter e-EV futhi abekwe kahle embonini ngokwamandla nezindleko. Abakhiqizi basathuthukisa ukusebenza, futhi le substrate ingase ibonise amandla emodeli yamandla aphansi okukhulunywe ngayo esimweni sesibili, okwenza kube lula ukukhuphuka ngobuningi. Mhlawumbe i-SiC izogcinelwa izimoto zikaTesla ezithuthuke kakhulu, ezinamandla kakhulu.
I-GaN-on-Si ibonisa amandla amakhulu emakethe yezimoto, kodwa abahlaziyi babona lokhu njengokucatshangelwa kwesikhathi eside (ngaphezu kweminyaka engu-5 kuma-inverter emhlabeni wendabuko). Yize kube nezingxoxo ezithile embonini ezungeze i-GaN, isidingo sikaTesla sokunciphisa izindleko kanye nokukhushulwa kwenqwaba kwenza kungenzeki ukuthi izothuthela ezintweni ezintsha kakhulu nezingavuthwa kangako kune-SiC esikhathini esizayo. Kodwa ingabe u-Tesla angasithatha isinyathelo sesibindi sokwamukela lokhu kwaziswa okusha kuqala? Isikhathi kuphela esizosho.
Ukuthunyelwa kwe-wafer kuthinteke kancane, kodwa kungase kube nezimakethe ezintsha
Ngenkathi ukucindezela kokuhlanganiswa okukhulu kuzoba nomthelela omncane emakethe yamadivayisi, kungaba nomthelela ekuthunyelweni kwe-wafer. Nakuba kungenjalo ngendlela abaningi ababecabanga ngayo ekuqaleni, isimo ngasinye sibikezela ukwehla kwesidingo se-SiC, okungase kuthinte izinkampani ze-semiconductor.
Kodwa-ke, ingakhuphula ukunikezwa kwezinto kwezinye izimakethe ezikhule kanye nemakethe yezimoto eminyakeni emihlanu edlule. I-Auto ilindele ukuthi zonke izimboni zikhule kakhulu eminyakeni ezayo - cishe ngenxa yezindleko eziphansi kanye nokwanda kokufinyelela ezintweni.
Isimemezelo sikaTesla sithumele ukushaqeka embonini, kepha uma uqhubeka nokucabangisisa, umbono we-SiC uhlala ulungile kakhulu. Ngabe uTesla uya kuphi ngokulandelayo - futhi imboni izosabela kanjani futhi izivumelanise nezimo? Kuyafaneleka ukunakwa kwethu.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Mar-27-2023