NgoJanuwari 30, iBritish Petroleum (BP) yakhipha umbiko wezi-2023 othi “World Energy Outlook”, igcizelela ukuthi amafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi esikhathini esifushane abaluleke kakhulu ekushintsheni kwamandla, kodwa ukushoda kwamandla omhlaba wonke, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuyaqhubeka nokukhula kanye nezinye izici. kulindeleke ukuthi kusheshiswe uguquko lwekhabhoni eluhlaza kanye nekhabhoni ephansi, umbiko ubeke phambili izitayela ezine zokuthuthukiswa kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele, futhi ubikezele ukuthuthukiswa kwe-hydrocarbon ephansi kuze kube ngu-2050.
Umbiko uveza ukuthi esikhathini esifushane, izibaso ezimbiwa phansi zizodlala indima ebalulekile ohlelweni lokushintshwa kwamandla, kodwa ukuntuleka kwamandla emhlabeni wonke, ukwanda okuqhubekayo kokukhishwa kwekhabhoni kanye nokuvela njalo kwesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu kuzosheshisa amandla omhlaba aluhlaza futhi aphansi. - ukushintshwa kwe-carbon. Uguquko olusebenzayo ludinga kanyekanye ukubhekana nokuvikeleka kwamandla, ukufinyeleleka kanye nokusimama; Ikusasa lamandla emhlabeni wonke lizokhombisa izitayela ezine ezinkulu: ukwehla kweqhaza lamandla e-hydrocarbon, ukuthuthukiswa okusheshayo kwamandla avuselelekayo, izinga elikhulayo lokufakwa kukagesi, kanye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kokusetshenziswa kwe-hydrocarbon ephansi.
Umbiko uthatha ukuvela kwezinhlelo zamandla ngo-2050 ngaphansi kwezimo ezintathu: uguquko olusheshisiwe, i-net zero namandla amasha. Umbiko uphakamisa ukuthi ngaphansi kwesimo soguquko esisheshisiwe, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuzoncishiswa cishe ngama-75%; Esimeni se-net-zero, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuzoncishiswa ngaphezu kwama-95; Ngaphansi kwesimo esisha esiguqukayo (esithatha ukuthi sonke isimo sokuthuthukiswa kwamandla emhlabeni wonke eminyakeni emihlanu edlule, okuhlanganisa inqubekelaphambili yezobuchwepheshe, ukunciphisa izindleko, njll., kanye nokuqina kwenqubomgomo yomhlaba kuzohlala kungashintshile eminyakeni emihlanu kuya kwengama-30 ezayo), ikhabhoni yomhlaba wonke. Ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuzokhuphuka kakhulu ngeminyaka yo-2020 futhi kunciphise ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni emhlabeni wonke cishe ngama-30% ngo-2050 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2019.
Umbiko uthi ama-hydrocarbon aphansi adlala indima ebalulekile ekushintsheni kwamandla ekhabhoni ephansi, ikakhulukazi ezimbonini, ezokuthutha kanye neminye imikhakha okunzima ukuyifakela ugesi. I-hydrogen eluhlaza kanye ne-hydrogen eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka yi-hydrocarbon ephansi eyinhloko, futhi ukubaluleka kwe-hydrogen eluhlaza kuzothuthukiswa ngenqubo yokuguqulwa kwamandla. Ukuhweba nge-hydrogen kubandakanya ukuhweba ngamapayipi esifunda ukuze kuthuthwe i-hydrogen emsulwa kanye nokuhweba olwandle kokuphuma kwe-hydrogen.
Umbiko ubikezela ukuthi ngo-2030, ngaphansi koguquko olusheshayo kanye nezimo ze-net zero, isidingo esiphansi se-hydrocarbon sizofinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-30 ngonyaka kanye namathani ayizigidi ezingu-50 ngonyaka, ngokulandelana, futhi iningi lalawa ma-hydrocarbon aphansi asetshenziswa njengemithombo yamandla kanye nama-ejenti anciphisa izimboni. ukufaka esikhundleni segesi yemvelo, i-hydrogen esekwe emalahleni (esetshenziswa njengezisetshenziswa zasezimbonini zokucwenga, ukukhiqiza i-ammonia kanye methanol) namalahle. Okusele kuzosetshenziswa ekukhiqizeni amakhemikhali nasekukhiqizeni usimende.
Ngonyaka wezi-2050, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi kuzosebenzisa cishe amaphesenti angama-40 engqikithi yesidingo se-hydrocarbon ephansi emkhakheni wezimboni, futhi ngaphansi kwezimo ezisheshisiwe kanye nezimo zero, ama-hydrocarbon aphansi azothatha cishe u-5% kanye no-10% wawo wonke amandla okusetshenziswa, ngokulandelana.
Umbiko uphinde ubikezele ukuthi, ngaphansi koguquko olusheshayo kanye nezimo ze-net zero, okuphuma kwe-hydrogen kuzoba ngamaphesenti ayi-10 kanye namaphesenti angama-30 esidingo samandla endiza kanye namaphesenti angama-30 namaphesenti angama-55 esidingo samandla olwandle, ngokulandelana, ngo-2050, iningi labasele liya emkhakheni wezokuthutha ezisindayo emgwaqeni; Ngo-2050, isamba sama-hydrocarbon aphansi kanye nokuphuma kwe-hydrogen sizobalelwa ku-10% kanye no-20% wengqikithi yokusetshenziswa kwamandla emkhakheni wezokuthutha, ngokulandelana, ngaphansi koguquko olusheshayo kanye nezimo ze-net zero.
Njengamanje, izindleko ze-hydrogen eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka ngokuvamile ziphansi kune-hydrogen eluhlaza ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba, kodwa umehluko wezindleko uzoncipha kancane kancane njengoba ubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza i-hydrogen eluhlaza buthuthuka, ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqizwa kukhuphuka kanye nentengo yamafutha emvelo yemvelo ikhuphuka, lo mbiko. kusho. Ngaphansi kwenguquko esheshisiwe kanye nesimo se-net-zero, umbiko ubikezela ukuthi i-hydrogen eluhlaza izobalelwa cishe ngamaphesenti angama-60 engqikithi ye-hydrocarbon ephansi ngo-2030, ikhuphuke iye kumaphesenti angama-65 ngo-2050.
Umbiko uphinde uphakamise ukuthi indlela i-hydrogen edayiswa ngayo izohluka kuye ngokusetshenziswa kokugcina. Ngezinhlelo zokusebenza ezidinga i-hydrogen emsulwa (njengezinqubo zokushisisa izinga lokushisa eliphezulu kwezimboni noma ezokuthutha ngemoto yomgwaqo), isidingo singangeniswa sisuka ezindaweni ezifanele ngamapayipi; Ezindaweni lapho kudingeka khona okuphuma ku-hydrogen (njenge-ammonia ne-methanol emikhunjini), izindleko zokuthutha ngokuphuma kwe-hydrogen ziphansi uma kuqhathaniswa futhi isidingo singangeniswa emazweni athuthuke kakhulu emhlabeni jikelele.
E-European Union, isibonelo, umbiko ubikezela ukuthi ngaphansi kwenguquko esheshisiwe kanye nesimo se-net-zero, i-EU izokhiqiza cishe u-70% wama-hydrocarbon ayo aphansi ngo-2030, ehle aze afike ku-60% ngo-2050. Amaphesenti angu-50 e-hydrogen ehlanzekile azongeniswa ngamapayipi avela eNyakatho Afrika nakwamanye amazwe aseYurophu (isb. iNorway, i-UK), namanye. Amaphesenti angu-50 azongeniswa ngolwandle emakethe yomhlaba wonke ngendlela ye-hydrogen derivatives.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-06-2023