1. ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni yensimbi kuqhuba ukukhula kwesidingo somhlaba wonke sama-graphite electrode
1.1 Isingeniso esifushane se-graphite electrode
I-electrode ye-graphiteiwuhlobo lwe-graphite conductive material olumelana nokushisa okuphezulu.Kuwuhlobo lwezinto eziphakeme zokushisa eziphakeme ze-graphite conductive, ezenziwe ngokubala izinto zokusetshenziswa, ukuchoboza impushana yokugaya, i-batching, ukuxuba, ukwakha, ukubhaka, ukufaka ukukhulelwa, i-graphitization kanye nokucutshungulwa komshini, okubizwa ngokuthi i-graphite electrode yokufakelwa (i-graphite electrode) ukuhlukanisa nokusetshenziswa kwezulu Kodwa-ke, i-graphite i-electrode ye-graphite yemvelo elungiselelwe kusuka ezintweni ezingavuthiwe.Ama-electrode e-graphite angakwazi ukuqhuba ugesi wamanje futhi akhiqize ugesi, ngaleyo ndlela ancibilikise izinsimbi ezilahliwe noma ezinye izinto ezingavuthiwe esithandweni somlilo ukukhiqiza insimbi neminye imikhiqizo yensimbi, esetshenziswa kakhulu ekukhiqizeni insimbi.I-electrode ye-graphite iwuhlobo lwempahla enokumelana okuphansi nokumelana ne-thermal gradient esithandweni se-arc.Izici eziyinhloko zokukhiqizwa kwe-graphite electrode umjikelezo omude wokukhiqiza (ngokuvamile uhlala izinyanga ezintathu kuya kwezinhlanu), ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okukhulu kanye nenqubo yokukhiqiza eyinkimbinkimbi.
Izinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphuka nomfula we-graphite electrode industry chain ikakhulukazi i-petroleum coke ne-coke yenaliti, futhi izinto zokusetshenziswa zenza ingxenye enkulu yezindleko zokukhiqiza i-graphite electrode, ebalwa ngaphezu kuka-65%, ngoba kusenegebe elikhulu phakathi Ubuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza inaliti ye-coke yaseChina nobuchwepheshe uma kuqhathaniswa ne-United States ne-Japan, ikhwalithi ye-coke yenaliti yasekhaya inzima ukuqinisekiswa, ngakho-ke i-China isethembele kakhulu ekungenweni kwe-coke yenaliti yekhwalithi ephezulu.Ngo-2018, ukuhlinzekwa okuphelele kwemakethe ye-needle coke e-China kungamathani angu-418000, futhi ukungeniswa kwe-coke yenaliti e-China kufinyelela amathani angu-218000, okungaphezu kuka-50%;ukusetshenziswa okuyinhloko komfula we-graphite electrode i-Electric arc furnace steelmaking.
Ukuhlukaniswa okuvamile kwe-graphite electrode kusekelwe ezintweni ezibonakalayo namakhemikhali emikhiqizo eqediwe.Ngaphansi kwaleli zinga lokuhlukanisa, i-electrode ye-graphite ingahlukaniswa ibe amandla ajwayelekile e-graphite electrode, i-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aphezulu kanye ne-ultra-high power graphite electrode.Ama-electrode e-graphite anamandla ahlukene ahlukile ezintweni ezingavuthiwe, i-electrode resistivity, i-elastic modulus, amandla aguquguqukayo, i-coefficient yokwanda okushisayo, ukuminyana okuvunyelwe kwamanje kanye nezinkambu zokufaka isicelo.
1.2.Ukubuyekezwa komlando wokuthuthukiswa kwe-graphite electrode e-China
I-electrode ye-graphite isetshenziswa kakhulu ekuncibilikiseni insimbi nensimbi.Ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni ye-graphite electrode yaseChina ngokuyisisekelo kuhambisana nenqubo yesimanje yomkhakha wensimbi nensimbi waseChina.I-electrode ye-graphite e-China yaqala ngeminyaka yawo-1950, futhi isihlangabezane nezigaba ezintathu kusukela yazalwa
Imakethe ye-graphite electrode kulindeleke ukuthi ihlehle ngo-2021. Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020, ethintwe isimo esiwubhubhane, isidingo sasekhaya sehle kakhulu, ama-oda angaphandle abambezeleka, kanye nenani elikhulu lemithombo yezimpahla libe nomthelela emakethe yasekhaya.NgoFebhuwari 2020, intengo ye-graphite electrode yenyuka isikhashana, kodwa ngokushesha impi yamanani yashuba.Kulindeleke ukuthi ngokutholwa kwezimakethe zasekhaya nezangaphandle kanye nokukhula kwesithando somlilo sikagesi ngaphansi kwenqubomgomo yasekhaya ye-carbon neutral, imakethe ye-graphite electrode kulindeleke ukuthi ihlehle.Kusukela ngo-2020, njengoba intengo ye-graphite electrode iwa futhi ijwayele ukuzinza, isidingo sasekhaya se-graphite electrode ye-EAF steelmaking sikhula kancane, futhi umthamo wokuthekelisa we-ultra-high power graphite electrode ukhula kancane kancane, ukugxiliswa kwemakethe ye-graphite yaseChina. imboni ye-electrode izokhula kancane kancane, futhi imboni izovuthwa kancane kancane.
2. iphethini yokuhlinzeka nesidingo se-graphite electrode kulindeleke ukuthi ihlehle
2.1.ukushintshashintsha kwentengo yomhlaba wonke kwe-graphite electrode kukhulu uma kuqhathaniswa
Kusukela ngo-2014 kuya ku-2016, ngenxa yokuncipha kwesidingo somfula, imakethe ye-graphite electrode yehla, futhi intengo ye-graphite electrode yahlala iphansi.Njengento eyinhloko yokusetshenziswa kwe-graphite electrode, inani lenaliti ye-coke lehla laya ku-$562.2 ngethani ngo-2016. Njengoba i-China ingumthengisi wenetha we-coke yenaliti, ukufunwa kwe-China kunomthelela omkhulu ngentengo ye-coke yenaliti ngaphandle kwe-China.Ngomthamo wabakhiqizi be-electrode ye-graphite ewela ngaphansi komugqa wezindleko zokukhiqiza ngo-2016, i-inventory yezenhlalakahle yafinyelela iphuzu eliphansi.Ngo-2017, ukuphela kwenqubomgomo kukhanseliwe isithando somlilo esiphakathi se-Di Tiao steel, futhi inani elikhulu lensimbi elahliwe lagelezela esithandweni somlilo wesitshalo sensimbi, okubangele ukwanda okungazelelwe kwesidingo semboni ye-graphite electrode eChina engxenyeni yesibili 2017. Ukwanda kwesidingo se-graphite electrode kubangele inani le-coke yenaliti likhuphuke kakhulu ngo-2017, futhi lafinyelela e-US $ 3769.9 ngethani ngo-2019, izikhathi ezingu-5.7 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2016.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, uhlangothi lwenqubomgomo yasekhaya belulokhu lusekela futhi luqondisa inqubo emfushane yokwenza insimbi ye-EAF esikhundleni sensimbi yokuguqula, ekhuthaze ukwanda kwesidingo se-graphite electrode embonini yensimbi yaseChina.Kusukela ngo-2017, imakethe yensimbi yomhlaba wonke ye-EAF isiluleme, okuholele ekushodeni kokuhlinzekwa kwama-electrode e-graphite emhlabeni jikelele.Isidingo sama-electrode e-graphite ngaphandle kwaseChina sikhuphuke kakhulu ngo-2017 futhi intengo yafinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu.Kusukela lapho, ngenxa yokutshalwa kwezimali ngokweqile, ukukhiqizwa nokuthenga, imakethe inesitoko esiningi kakhulu, futhi inani elimaphakathi le-graphite electrode lehlile ngo-2019. Ngo-2019, intengo ye-uhhp graphite electrode yayizinzile ku-US $8824.0 ngethani, kodwa yahlala iphezulu kunentengo yomlando ngaphambi kuka-2016.
Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020, i-COVID-19 iholele ekwehleni okwengeziwe kwentengo yokuthengisa emaphakathi yama-graphite electrode, futhi intengo yenaliti yasekhaya yehla isuka ku-8000 yuan / ton yaya ku-4500 yuan / ton ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, noma u-43.75% .Izindleko zokukhiqiza ze-coke yenaliti e-China yi-5000-6000 yuan / ton, futhi abakhiqizi abaningi bangaphansi kwendawo yebhalansi yenzuzo nokulahlekelwa.Ngokusimama komnotho, ukukhiqizwa nokumaketha kwama-electrode e-graphite e-China kuye kwaba ngcono kusukela ngo-August, izinga lokuqala lensimbi yesithando somlilo ligcinwe ku-65%, umdlandla wezitshalo zensimbi ukuthenga ama-electrode e-graphite ukhulile, futhi uhlu lophenyo. imakethe yokuthekelisa iye yanda kancane kancane.Intengo ye-graphite electrode nayo ibilokhu ikhuphuka kusukela ngo-September 2020. Intengo ye-graphite electrode ngokuvamile ikhuphuke ngo-500-1500 yuan / ton, futhi intengo yokuthekelisa inyuke kakhulu.
Kusukela ngo-2021, ehlaselwe yisimo esiwubhubhane esifundazweni sase-Hebei, izitshalo eziningi ze-graphite electrode zivaliwe futhi izimoto zokuhamba zilawulwa ngokuqinile, futhi ama-electrode graphite wendawo awakwazi ukudayiswa ngokujwayelekile.Intengo yemikhiqizo evamile kanye namandla aphezulu emakethe yasekhaya ye-graphite electrode iphezulu.Intengo evamile yokucaciswa kwe-uhp450mm enokuqukethwe kwe-coke inaliti engu-30% emakethe ingu-15-15500 yuan / ton, futhi intengo evamile yokucaciswa kwe-uhp600mm ingu-185-19500 yuan / ton, isuka ku-500-2000 yuan / ton.Intengo ekhuphukayo yezinto zokusetshenziswa iphinde isekele intengo ye-graphite electrode.Njengamanje, intengo ye-coke yenaliti ochungechungeni lwamalahle afuywayo imayelana ne-7000 yuan, uchungechunge lukawoyela cishe lungama-7800, futhi intengo yokungenisa icishe ibe ngama-dollar ayi-1500.Ngokusho kolwazi lwe-Bachuan, abanye abakhiqizi abajwayelekile baye ba-oda umthombo wezimpahla ngoFebhuwari.Ngenxa yokunakekelwa endaweni eyodwa kwabahlinzeki abakhulu bempahla yokusetshenziswa ekhaya naphesheya ngo-Ephreli, kulindeleke ukuthi i-electrode ye-graphite yango-2021 isazoba nendawo yokukhuphuka engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka.Kodwa-ke, ngokwenyuka kwezindleko, ukuphela kwesidingo sokuncibilikiswa kwesithando somlilo esingaphansi komfula kuzoba buthakathaka, futhi intengo ye-graphite electrode engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale izinzile.
2.2.indawo yokukhula yekhwalithi yasekhaya ephezulu kanye ne-ultra high power graphite electrode inkulu
Ukukhishwa kwama-electrode e-graphite phesheya kwezilwandle kunciphile, futhi amandla okukhiqiza ikakhulukazi amandla e-graphite electrode e-ultrahigh.Kusukela ngo-2014 kuya ku-2019, ukukhiqizwa kwama-electrode e-graphite emhlabeni wonke (ngaphandle kwe-China) kwehlile kusuka kumathani angu-800000 kuya kumathani angu-710000, ngezinga lokukhula lonyaka eliyinhlanganisela elingu-2.4%.Ngenxa yokubhidlizwa kwezitshalo ezisezingeni eliphansi, ukulungiswa kwemvelo nokwakhiwa kabusha kwesikhathi eside, amandla kanye nokuphumayo ngaphandle kwaseChina kuyaqhubeka nokuncipha, futhi igebe phakathi kokuphumayo nokusetshenziswa ligcwaliswa ngama-electrode egraphite athunyelwa yiChina.Kusukela esakhiweni somkhiqizo, ukukhishwa kwama-electrode e-graphite wamandla aphezulu aphezulu phesheya kubala cishe u-90% wesamba esiphuma kuwo wonke ama-electrode e-graphite (ngaphandle kwe-China).Ikhwalithi ephezulu kanye ne-ultra-high power graphite electrode isetshenziswa ikakhulukazi ekukhiqizeni insimbi engagqwali nensimbi ekhethekile.Umkhiqizi udinga izinkomba eziphezulu zomzimba namakhemikhali ezifana nokuminyana, ukumelana nokuqukethwe komlotha wama-electrode anjalo.
Ukukhiqizwa kwe-graphite electrode e-China kuye kwaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, futhi amandla okukhiqiza ekhwalithi ephezulu kanye ne-ultra high power graphite electrode anqunyelwe.Ukukhiqizwa kwe-electrode ye-graphite e-China yehle isuka kumathani angu-570000 ngo-2014 yaya kumathani angu-500000 ngo-2016. Ukukhiqizwa kwe-China kuye kwaphindeka kusukela ngo-2017 futhi kwafinyelela amathani angu-800000 ngo-2019. Uma kuqhathaniswa nemakethe yomhlaba wonke yama-graphite electrode, abakhiqizi basekhaya banezinga eliphansi kakhulu -amandla okukhiqiza i-graphite electrode, kodwa ngekhwalithi ephezulu kanye ne-ultra-high-power graphite, umthamo wokukhiqiza wasekhaya ulinganiselwe kakhulu.Ngo-2019, ukuphuma kwe-electrode ye-graphite yekhwalithi ephezulu yaseChina kungamathani angama-86000 kuphela, okulinganiselwa ku-10% wesamba esiphelele, esihluke kakhulu ekwakhekeni kwemikhiqizo ye-graphite electrode yangaphandle.
Ngokombono wesidingo, ukusetshenziswa kwama-electrode e-graphite emhlabeni (ngaphandle kwe-China) ngo-2014-2019 kuhlale kukhulu kunomphumela, futhi ngemva kuka-2017, ukusetshenziswa kuyanda unyaka nonyaka.Ngo-2019, ukusetshenziswa kwama-graphite electrode emhlabeni (ngaphandle kweChina) bekungamathani angama-890000.Kusukela ngo-2014 kuya ku-2015, ukusetshenziswa kwama-electrode e-graphite e-China kwehle kusuka kumathani angu-390000 kuya kumathani angu-360000, futhi ukukhishwa kwama-electrode e-graphite asezingeni eliphezulu kanye ne-ultra-high-high-power graphite kwehla kusukela ku-23800 amathani kuya ku-20300 amathani.Kusukela ngo-2016 kuya ku-2017, ngenxa yokusimama kancane kancane kwamandla emakethe yensimbi e-China, ingxenye ye-EAF yokwenza insimbi iyakhula.Phakathi naleso sikhathi, inani lama-EAF aphezulu asetshenziswa abakhiqizi bensimbi liyakhula.Isidingo sama-electrode e-graphite asezingeni eliphakeme senyuke safinyelela kumathani angama-580000 ngonyaka ka-2019, lapho isidingo sama-electrode aphezulu we-graphite asezingeni eliphakeme sifinyelela kumathani angama-66300, kanti i-CAGR ngo-2017-2019 ifinyelela ku-68% .I-electrode ye-graphite (ikakhulukazi i-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aphezulu) kulindeleke ukuthi ihlangabezane nesidingo esiqhutshwa ukuvikelwa kwemvelo kanye nokukhiqizwa okulinganiselwe ekugcineni kokunikezwa kanye nokungeneka kwensimbi yesithando somlilo ekupheleni kwesidingo.
3. ukukhula kwenqubo emfushane yokuncibilikisa kuqhuba ukuthuthukiswa kwe-graphite electrode
3.1.isidingo sesithando somlilo esisha sikagesi ukushayela i-graphite electrode
Imboni yensimbi ingenye yezimboni eziyinsika zokuthuthukiswa komphakathi kanye nenqubekela phambili.Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe emhlabeni wonke kuye kwaqhubeka nokukhula.Insimbi isetshenziswa kakhulu embonini yezimoto, yokwakha, yokupakisha kanye nezitimela, kanti ukusetshenziswa kwensimbi emhlabeni wonke kukhule kancane kancane.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ikhwalithi yemikhiqizo yensimbi iye yathuthukiswa futhi imithetho yokuvikela imvelo iyanda.Abanye abakhiqizi bensimbi baphendukela ekukhiqizeni insimbi yesithando somlilo, kuyilapho i-graphite electrode ibaluleke kakhulu esithandweni somlilo, ngaleyo ndlela ithuthukise izidingo zekhwalithi ye-graphite electrode.Ukuncibilikiswa kwensimbi nensimbi kuyinkambu eyinhloko yokusetshenziswa kwe-graphite electrode, ebalwa cishe ngama-80% okusetshenziswa okuphelele kwe-graphite electrode.Ekuncibilikisweni kwensimbi nensimbi, ukwenza insimbi yesithando somlilo kagesi kubala cishe amaphesenti angama-50 engqikithi yokusetshenziswa kwe-electrode yegraphite, kanye nokucwengwa kwama-akhawunti omlilo wangaphandle ngaphezu kuka-25% wengqikithi yokusetshenziswa kwe-electrode yegraphite.Emhlabeni, ngo-2015, iphesenti lomkhiqizo wensimbi engahluziwe emhlabeni wonke lalingu-25.2%, 62.7%, 39.4% no-22.9% ngokulandelana e-United States, emazweni angu-27 e-European Union naseJapane, kanti ngo-2015, Ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe yesithando somlilo waseShayina kubalelwe ku-5.9%, okwakuphansi kakhulu kunezinga lomhlaba.Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ubuchwepheshe benqubo emfushane bunezinzuzo ezisobala phezu kwenqubo ende.Imboni yensimbi ekhethekile ene-EAF njengemishini yokukhiqiza eyinhloko kulindeleke ukuthi ithuthuke ngokushesha.Izinsiza ezilahliwe zezinto zokusetshenziswa zensimbi ye-EAF zizoba nendawo enkulu yokuthuthukiswa yesikhathi esizayo.Ngakho-ke, ukwenziwa kwensimbi kwe-EAF kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthuke ngokushesha, ngaleyo ndlela kukhuphule isidingo se-graphite electrode.Ngokombono wezobuchwepheshe, i-EAF iyisisetshenziswa esiyinhloko sokwenza insimbi yenqubo emfushane.Ubuchwepheshe bokwenza insimbi yenqubo emfushane bunezinzuzo ezisobala ekusebenzeni kahle kokukhiqiza, ukuvikelwa kwemvelo, izindleko zokutshala izimali zokwakha imali kanye nokuguquguquka kwenqubo;kusukela ezansi nomfula, cishe u-70% wensimbi ekhethekile kanye ne-100% yensimbi ephezulu ye-alloy e-China akhiqizwa isithando somlilo se-arc.Ngo-2016, ukukhishwa kwensimbi ekhethekile e-China yi-1/5 kuphela ye-Japan, futhi imikhiqizo yensimbi ekhethekile ephezulu ikhiqizwa kuphela eJapane Ingxenye yengqikithi yi-1 / 8 kuphela ye-Japan.Ukuthuthukiswa kwesikhathi esizayo kwensimbi ekhethekile ephezulu e-China kuzoqhuba ukuthuthukiswa kwe-graphite electrode yensimbi yesithando somlilo kagesi nesithando somlilo kagesi;ngakho-ke, ukugcinwa kwezinsiza zensimbi kanye nokusetshenziswa kwe-scrap e-China kunendawo enkulu yokuthuthukiswa, futhi isisekelo sezinsiza zokwenza insimbi yesikhashana esikhathini esizayo sinamandla.
Ukukhishwa kwe-graphite electrode kuhambisana nokushintsha komkhuba wokukhipha insimbi yesithando somlilo kagesi.Ukwanda kokuphuma kwensimbi yesithando somlilo kuzoqhuba isidingo se-graphite electrode esikhathini esizayo.Ngokwemininingwane ye-World iron and Steel Association kanye ne-China Carbon Industry Association, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi yesithando somlilo kagesi e-China ngo-2019 kungamathani ayizigidi eziyi-127.4, kanti ukukhishwa kwe-graphite electrode kungamathani angama-7421000.Izinga lokukhipha kanye nokukhula kwe-graphite electrode e-China kuhlobene eduze nokukhishwa kanye nezinga lokukhula kwensimbi yesithando somlilo kagesi e-China.Ngokombono wokukhiqiza, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi yesithando somlilo kagesi ngo-2011 kwafinyelela umvuthwandaba wawo, kwase kwehla unyaka nonyaka, futhi ukukhishwa kwe-graphite electrode eChina nakho kwancipha unyaka nonyaka ngemva kuka-2011. Ngo-2016, uMnyango Wezimboni nolwazi. ubuchwepheshe bungene ezithandweni zikagesi ezingaba ngu-205 zamabhizinisi okwenza insimbi, ngokukhiqizwa kwamathani ayizigidi ezingama-45, okubalelwa ku-6.72% wokukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe kazwelonke kulo nyaka.Ngonyaka wezi-2017, kwanezelwa amasha angu-127, okukhiqizwe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-75, okubalelwa ku-9.32% wesamba sokukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe ngonyaka ofanayo;ngo-2018, kwanezelwa ezintsha ezingama-34, okukhiqizwe amathani ayizigidi eziyi-100, okubalelwa ku-11% wesamba esikhishwe yinsimbi engahluziwe kulo nyaka;ngo-2019, izithando zikagesi ezingaphansi kwama-50t zaqedwa, futhi izithando zikagesi ezisanda kwakhiwa futhi ezikhiqizwa eChina zazingaphezu kwama-355, zibalwa ngengxenye Ifinyelele ku-12.8%.Ingxenye yokwenza insimbi yesithando somlilo kagesi e-China isephansi kunesilinganiso somhlaba wonke, kodwa igebe liqala ukuncipha kancane kancane.Kusukela kuzinga lokukhula, ukukhishwa kwe-graphite electrode kubonisa ukuthambekela kokuguquguquka nokwehla.Ngo-2015, ukuthambekela kokwehla kokukhiqizwa kwensimbi kwesithando somlilo kagesi kuyancipha, futhi ukukhishwa kwe-graphite electrode kuncipha.Ingxenye yensimbi ephumayo esikhathini esizayo izoba nkulu, okuzoqhuba isikhala sesidingo sesikhathi esizayo se-graphite electrode yesithando somlilo sikagesi.
Ngokwenqubomgomo yokulungisa imboni yensimbi ekhishwe uMnyango Wezimboni kanye nobuchwepheshe bolwazi, kuhlongozwa ngokusobala ukuthi “kukhuthazwe ukugqugquzelwa kwenqubo yokwenza insimbi yesikhathi esifushane kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemishini ngezinsimbi ezilahliwe njengezinto ezingavuthiwe.Ngo-2025, isilinganiso sokwenza insimbi kwamabhizinisi aseShayina akumele sibe ngaphansi kwama-30%.Ngokuthuthukiswa kohlelo lwe-14 lweminyaka emihlanu emikhakheni ehlukahlukene, kulindeleke ukuthi ingxenye yenqubo emfushane izothuthukisa isidingo se-graphite electrode, into ebalulekile enhla nomfula.
Ngaphandle kweShayina, amazwe amakhulu akhiqiza insimbi emhlabeni, njenge-United States, Japan kanye neNingizimu Korea, ikakhulukazi enza insimbi yesithando somlilo, edinga ama-electrode e-graphite engeziwe, kuyilapho amandla e-graphite electrode aseShayina enza ngaphezu kuka-50% womhlaba wonke. umthamo, okwenza iShayina ibe ngumkhiqizi ophelele wama-graphite electrode.Ngo-2018, umthamo wokuthekelisa we-graphite electrode waseChina wafinyelela kumathani angama-287000, okuwukukhuphuka okungama-21.11% unyaka nonyaka, nokugcina inkambiso yokukhula, kanye nokwanda okukhulu iminyaka emithathu ilandelana.Kulindeleke ukuthi umthamo wokuthekelisa we-graphite electrode eShayina ukhuphuke ufike kumathani angama-398000 ngo-2023, ngesilinganiso sokukhula esihlanganisiwe sonyaka esingu-5.5%.Ngenxa yokuthuthukiswa kwezinga lobuchwepheshe bemboni, imikhiqizo ye-graphite electrode yaseChina kancane kancane iye yaqashelwa futhi yamukelwa amakhasimende aphesheya kwezilwandle, futhi imali yokuthengisa phesheya kwezilwandle yamabhizinisi aseShayina e-graphite electrode iye yanda kakhulu.Sithatha imboni ehamba phambili ye-graphite electrode e-China njengesibonelo, ngokuthuthuka okuphelele kwemboni ye-graphite electrode, ngenxa yokuncintisana kwayo okuqinile komkhiqizo, i-Fangda carbon iye yandisa kakhulu imali engenayo yebhizinisi le-graphite electrode eminyakeni emibili yamuva nje.Ukuthengisa phesheya kwezilwandle kukhuphuke kusuka ku-430million yuan ngesikhathi esiphansi semboni ye-graphite electrode ngo-2016 kuya Ngo-2018, imali engenayo yaphesheya kwezilwandle yebhizinisi le-graphite electrode yaba ngaphezu kuka-30% wesamba semali engenayo yenkampani, futhi idigri ye-interalization yayikhula. .Ngokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kwezinga lobuchwepheshe kanye nokuncintisana komkhiqizo embonini ye-graphite electrode yaseChina, i-electrode yaseChina izoqashelwa futhi ithenjwe amakhasimende aphesheya kwezilwandle.Umthamo wokuthekelisa we-graphite electrode kulindeleke ukuthi ukhuphuke kakhulu, okuzoba yisici esibalulekile sokuthuthukisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-graphite electrode e-China.
3.2.umthelela wenqubomgomo yokuvikelwa kwemvelo esimweni sobhubhane kubangela ukuhlinzekwa kwe-graphite electrode kuqine
Ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni yenqubo ende yenqubo emfushane yokwenza insimbi esithandweni sikagesi kuyancishiswa.Ngokohlelo lweminyaka emihlanu lwemboni yensimbi engcolile, uma kuqhathaniswa nokwakhiwa kwensimbi yensimbi, ukukhishwa kwamathani angu-1,6 esikhutha kanye namathani angu-3 emfucumfucu eqinile kungancishiswa ngokusebenzisa ithani elingu-1 lensimbi yokwenza insimbi.Uchungechunge lwezinqubo luhilelekile embonini yensimbi nensimbi.Inqubo ngayinye izobhekana nochungechunge lwezinguquko zamakhemikhali nezomzimba.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izinhlobo ezihlukahlukene zezinsalela kanye nemfucuza zizolahlwa ngenkathi kukhiqizwa imikhiqizo edingekayo.Ngokubala, singathola ukuthi lapho ukukhiqizwa okufanayo kwe-1 ton slab / billet, inqubo ende equkethe inqubo ye-sintering izokhipha ukungcola okwengeziwe, okungokwesibili inqubo ende yenqubo ye-pellet, kuyilapho ukungcola kukhishwe yi-steelmaking yesikhashana. ziphansi kakhulu kunalezo zenqubo ende enenqubo ye-sintering kanye nenqubo ende equkethe i-pellet, okubonisa ukuthi inqubo yesikhathi esifushane yokwenza insimbi inobungane kakhulu emvelweni.Ukuze kuwine impi yokuvikela isibhakabhaka esiluhlaza, izifundazwe eziningi zaseChina zikhiphe isaziso sokukhiqiza okumangalisayo okuphezulu ebusika nasentwasahlobo, futhi zenza amalungiselelo amangalisayo okukhiqiza amabhizinisi abalulekile ahlobene negesi njengensimbi, i-nonferrous, coking, imboni yamakhemikhali, imboni yokwakha. izinto zokwakha kanye nokulingisa.Phakathi kwazo, uma ukusetshenziswa kwamandla, ukuvikelwa kwemvelo kanye nokuphepha kwamabhizinisi ekhabhoni kanye ne-ferroalloy okuyingxenye yawo i-graphite electrode ehluleka ukuhlangabezana nezidingo ezifanele, ezinye izifundazwe zihlongoze ngokusobala ukuthi umkhawulo wokukhiqiza noma ukumiswa kokukhiqiza kuzoqaliswa ngokuvumelana nesimo sangempela.
3.3.iphethini yokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo se-graphite electrode iyashintsha kancane kancane
I-Novel coronavirus pneumonia edalwe ukwehla komnotho emhlabeni kanye nethonya elithile lokuvikela engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020, lenze i-graphite electrode ekufuneni kwemakethe yasekhaya neyangaphandle kanye nentengo yokuthengisa yehla, futhi amabhizinisi e-graphite electrode embonini anciphisa ukukhiqizwa, amisa ukukhiqizwa kanye wenza ukulahlekelwa.Esikhathini esifushane nesiphakathi, ngaphezu kokulindela kweChina ukwenza ngcono isidingo se-graphite electrode, amandla e-electrode ye-graphite yaphesheya angase alinganiselwe ngaphansi kwethonya lalolu bhubhane, okuzokwenza kube nzima nakakhulu isimo sokutholakala kwephethini yegraphite. i-electrode.
Kusukela ngekota yesine ka-2020, inani le-graphite electrode liye lehla ngokuqhubekayo, futhi izinga lokuqalwa kwebhizinisi linyukile.Kusukela ngo-2019, ukuhlinzekwa okuphelele kwe-graphite electrode e-China kuye kwanda kakhulu, futhi amabhizinisi e-graphite electrode nawo alawula ngempumelelo ukuqala.Yize ukwehla komnotho emhlabeni wonke ngo-2020, umthelela wezigayo zensimbi zakwamanye amazwe ezithintwe yi-COVID-19 usaqhubeka, kodwa ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe yaseChina kusakhula ngokuzinzile.Kodwa-ke, intengo yemakethe ye-graphite electrode ithintwa ukunikezwa kwemakethe okwengeziwe, futhi intengo iyaqhubeka nokwehla, futhi amabhizinisi e-graphite electrode alahlekelwe kakhulu.Amanye amabhizinisi amakhulu e-graphite electrode e-China asebenzise kakhulu i-inventory ngo-April nango-May 2020. Njengamanje, ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo semakethe ephakeme kakhulu nenkulu kuseduze nendawo yebhalansi yokuhlinzeka nokufunwa.Ngisho noma isidingo sihlala singashintshile, usuku lokunikezwa okunamandla kakhulu kanye nokufunwa kuzofika maduze.
Ukukhula okusheshayo kokusetshenziswa kwe-scrap kukhuthaza isidingo.Ukusetshenziswa kwezinsimbi ezilahliwe kukhuphuke kusuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-88.29 ngo-2014 kuya kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-18781 ngo-2018, kwathi i-CAGR yafinyelela ku-20.8%.Njengoba kuvulwa umgomo kazwelonke wokungenisa izinsimbi ezilahliwe kanye nokwenyuka kwengxenye yokuncibilikiswa kweziko likagesi, kulindeleke ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwezinsimbi ezilahliwe kuqhubeke kukhuphuka ngokushesha.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngenxa yokuthi intengo yezinsimbi ezilahliwe ithinteka kakhulu ngokufunwa phesheya kwezilwandle, intengo yezilahliwe zaphesheya ikhuphuke kakhulu engxenyeni yesibili ka-2020 ngenxa yomthelela wokuqala kweChina ukungenisa izilahlwa.Njengamanje, intengo ye-scrap steel isezingeni eliphezulu, futhi isiqalile ukuphinda ibuyele emuva kusukela ngo-2021. Ukwehla kwesidingo esibangelwa umthelela wesimo esiwubhubhane phesheya kulindeleke ukuthi siqhubeke nokuthinta ukwehla kwezinsimbi zensimbi.Kulindeleke ukuthi intengo ye-scrap steel izoqhubeka nokuthinteka engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2021 I-lattice izoba yi-oscillating futhi yehle, okubuye kube lula ekuthuthukisweni kwezinga lokuqalisa kwesithando somlilo kanye nesidingo se-graphite electrode.
Isidingo esiphelele sensimbi yomlilo kagesi yomhlaba wonke kanye nensimbi engeyona isithando somlilo ngo-2019 nango-2020 singamathani ayi-1376800 namathani ayizigidi eziyi-14723 ngokulandelana.Kubikezelwa ukuthi isidingo esiphelele somhlaba wonke sizokhula nakakhulu eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo, futhi sifinyelele amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.1444 ngo-2025. Isidingo sensimbi yesithando somlilo sihlanganisa iningi lengqikithi.Kulinganiselwa ukuthi isidingo sizofinyelela amathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.8995 ngo-2025.
Isidingo somhlaba wonke sama-graphite electrode ngo-2019 nango-2020 singamathani ayi-1376800 kanye namathani ayizigidi eziyi-14723 ngokulandelana.Kubikezelwa ukuthi isidingo esiphelele somhlaba wonke sizokhula nakakhulu eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.1444 ngo-2025. Khonamanjalo, ngo-2021 no-2022, ukunikezwa komhlaba wonke kwama-graphite electrode kwakungaphezu kwamathani angu-267 kanye ne-16000 ngokulandelana.Ngemuva kuka-2023, kuzoba nokushoda kokuhlinzekwa, negebe lamathani -17900, amathani angu-39000 kanye namathani angu-24000.
Ngo-2019 nango-2020, isidingo somhlaba wonke sama-electrode e-UHP graphite singamathani angu-9087000 namathani angu-986400 ngokulandelana.Kubikezelwa ukuthi ingqikithi yesidingo emhlabeni wonke izokwanda eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo, futhi ifinyelele cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.608 ngo-2025. Khonamanjalo, ngo-2021 no-2022, ukunikezwa komhlaba wonke kwama-graphite electrode kwakungaphezu kwamathani angu-775 kanye namathani angu-61500 ngokulandelana.Ngemuva kuka-2023, kuzoba nokushoda kokuhlinzekwa, negebe lamathani -08000, amathani angu-26300 kanye namathani angu-67300.
Kusukela engxenyeni yesibili ka-2020 kuya kuJanuwari 2021, intengo yomhlaba wonke ye-ultra-high-power graphite electrode yehlile isuka ku-27000/t yaya ku-24000/ T. ngentengo yamanje.Ngo-2021, isidingo somhlaba wonke sama-electrode e-graphite e-ultra-high-power sizokhuphuka, ikakhulukazi ukushisa okuthunyelwa ngaphandle kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke nokudonsa isidingo se-ultra-high-power graphite, futhi izinga lokuqalisa i-graphite electrode lizoqhubeka nokukhuphuka.Kulindeleke ukuthi intengo ye-UHP graphite electrode ngo-2021 izokwenyuka ibe ngu-26000/ t engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, futhi inzuzo izokwenyuka ibe ngu-3922-4067 yuan / ton.Ngokukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo esiphelele sama-electrode e-graphite wamandla aphezulu kakhulu esikhathini esizayo, indawo yenzuzo izokwanda nakakhulu.
Kusukela ngoJanuwari2021, intengo yomhlaba wonke yamandla avamile we-graphite electrode ingu-11500-12500 yuan/ton.Ngokwezindleko zamanje kanye nentengo yemakethe, inzuzo ye-graphite electrode evamile ilinganiselwa ku-264-1404 yuan / ton, esesesimweni sokulahlekelwa.Intengo yamanje ye-graphite electrode enamandla ajwayelekile ikhuphuke isuka ku-10000 yuan/ton engxenyeni yesithathu ka-2020 yaya ku-12500 yuan/T. ngokusimama kancane kancane komnotho womhlaba, ikakhulukazi ngaphansi kwenqubomgomo ye-carbon neutralization, isidingo sensimbi yesithando somlilo sikhula ngokushesha. kwanda, futhi ukusetshenziswa kwezinsimbi zensimbi kuyaqhubeka nokwanda, futhi isidingo se-graphite electrode evamile sizokhuphuka kakhulu.Kulindeleke ukuthi intengo ye-graphite electrode enamandla ajwayelekile izokhushulwa ibe ngaphezu kwezindleko ngekota yesithathu ka-2021, futhi inzuzo izotholakala.Ngesidingo somhlaba wonke sama-graphite electrode wamandla ajwayelekile sikhuphuka ngokuqhubekayo esikhathini esizayo, indawo yenzuzo izokhula kancane kancane.
4. iphethini yokuncintisana yemboni ye-graphite electrode eChina
Ukufinyelela okuphakathi kwemboni ye-graphite electrode abakhiqizi be-graphite electrode, namabhizinisi azimele njengabahlanganyeli.Ukukhiqizwa kwe-graphite electrode yaseShayina kubala cishe u-50% womkhiqizo womhlaba wonke wama-graphite electrode.Njengebhizinisi elihamba phambili embonini ye-graphite electrode yaseChina, isabelo semakethe yesikwele se-carbon graphite electrode e-China singaphezu kuka-20%, kanti umthamo we-graphite electrode ungeyesithathu emhlabeni.Mayelana nekhwalithi yomkhiqizo, amabhizinisi amakhulu embonini ye-graphite electrode e-China anokuncintisana okuqinile kwamanye amazwe, futhi ukucaciswa kwezobuchwepheshe kwemikhiqizo ngokuyisisekelo kufinyelela izinga lemikhiqizo efanayo yezimbangi zangaphandle.Kukhona i-delamination emakethe ye-graphite electrode.Imakethe ye-ultra-high-power graphite electrode ithathwa kakhulu amabhizinisi aphezulu embonini, futhi amabhizinisi amane aphezulu abiza ngaphezu kwama-80% wesabelo semakethe semakethe ye-UHP graphite electrode, futhi ukugxila kwemboni kuqhathaniswa. sobala.
Emakethe ye-electrode ye-graphite yamandla aphezulu, amabhizinisi amakhulu e-graphite electrode aphakathi nendawo anamandla okuxoxisana embonini yokwenza insimbi engezansi nomfula, futhi adinga amakhasimende angaphansi komfula ukuthi akhokhe ukuletha izimpahla ngaphandle kokunikeza isikhathi se-akhawunti.Amandla aphezulu namandla ajwayelekile e-graphite electrode anomkhawulo wobuchwepheshe ophansi uma kuqhathaniswa, ukuncintisana kwemakethe okuqinile kanye nokuncintisana kwamanani okuvelele.Emakethe yamandla amakhulu futhi ajwayelekile e-graphite electrode, ebhekene nemboni yokwenza insimbi enokugxila okuphezulu phansi nomfula, amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo anamandla okuxoxisana abuthakathaka ukuya phansi komfula, ukuze anikeze amakhasimende isikhathi se-akhawunti noma ukunciphisa amanani ukuze bancintisane emakethe.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngenxa yezici eziqinisa ukuvikelwa kwemvelo, amandla ezinkampani ezimaphakathi alinganiselwe kakhulu, futhi izinga lokusebenzisa amandla embonini lilonke lingaphansi kwama-70%.Amanye amabhizinisi aze abonakale ewumkhuba wokuyalelwa ukuthi amise ukukhiqiza unomphela.Uma ukuchuma kwemboni yokuncibilikisa insimbi, i-phosphorus ephuzi nezinye izinto zokusetshenziswa ezimbonini ezansi nomfula we-graphite electrode kuncipha, isidingo semakethe ye-graphite electrode silinganiselwe, futhi intengo ye-graphite electrode ayikhuphuki kakhulu, ukwenyuka kwezindleko zokusebenza kuzoholela. ekusindeni kwamabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo ngaphandle kokuncintisana okuyinhloko, futhi kancane kancane aphume emakethe noma atholwe ngama-graphite electrode amakhulu noma amabhizinisi ensimbi.
Ngemuva kuka-2017, ngokukhula okusheshayo kwenzuzo ekwenzeni insimbi yesithando somlilo kagesi, isidingo kanye nentengo ye-graphite electrode yezinto ezisetshenziswayo zokwenza insimbi yesithando somlilo kagesi nazo zanda ngokushesha.Inzuzo enkulu yemboni ye-graphite electrode inyuke kakhulu.Amabhizinisi asembonini andise izinga lawo lokukhiqiza.Amanye amabhizinisi ashiye imakethe aqaliswe ukusebenza kancane kancane.Kusukela ekuphumeni okuphelele kwe-graphite electrode, ukugxila embonini kwehlile.Uma sithatha isikwele sekhabhoni ehamba phambili ye-graphite electrode njengesibonelo, isabelo sayo semakethe sehla sisuka cishe ku-30% ngo-2016 saya cishe ku-25% ngo-2018. Kodwa-ke, mayelana nokuhlukaniswa okuqondile kwemikhiqizo ye-graphite electrode, ukuncintisana emakethe yemboni kwahlukaniswa.Ngenxa yezidingo eziphakeme zobuchwepheshe ze-ultra-high-power graphite electrode, isabelo semakethe semikhiqizo yamandla aphezulu siyathuthukiswa ngokukhulula amandla okukhiqiza ezinkampani eziyinhloko zemboni ngamandla ezobuchwepheshe ahambisanayo, futhi amabhizinisi amakhulu amane aphezulu ngaphezu kwama-80% wesabelo semakethe semikhiqizo yamandla aphezulu.Ngokwamandla avamile namandla aphezulu e-graphite electrode anezidingo eziphansi zobuchwepheshe, ukuncintisana emakethe uqina kancane kancane ngenxa yokujoyina kabusha amabhizinisi amancane naphakathi anamandla obuchwepheshe abuthakathaka kanye nokwanda kokukhiqiza.
Ngemva kwamashumi eminyaka entuthuko, ngokwethulwa kobuchwepheshe bokukhiqizwa kwe-electrode ye-graphite, amabhizinisi amakhulu e-graphite electrode e-China asekwazi kahle ubuchwepheshe obuyisisekelo bokukhiqiza i-graphite electrode.Izinga lobuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza kanye nezinga lobuchwepheshe le-graphite electrode liqhathaniswa nelabaqhudelana nabo phesheya kwezilwandle, futhi ngezinzuzo zokusebenza kwezindleko eziphezulu, amabhizinisi aseShayina e-graphite electrode aya ngokuya edlala indima ebalulekile emqhudelwaneni wezimakethe zomhlaba.
5. iziphakamiso zokutshala izimali
Ekupheleni kokunikezwa, imboni ye-graphite electrode isenayo indawo yokuthuthukiswa, ukuvikelwa kwemvelo kanye nomkhawulo wokukhiqiza ukwandisa ingxenye yokwenziwa kwensimbi yesithando somlilo kagesi, futhi ukuthuthukiswa okuphelele kwemboni ye-graphite electrode kuyathandeka.Ngasohlangothini lwesidingo, ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukukhiqiza nokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla, ikusasa lamathani ayi-100-150 i-UHP EAF iyindlela evamile yokuthuthukisa, futhi ukuthuthukiswa kwe-UHP EAF kuwumkhuba ojwayelekile.Njengenye yezinto eziphambili ze-UHP EAF, isidingo se-electrode enkulu ye-graphite ye-ultra-high-power kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule ngokuqhubekayo.
Ukuchuma kwemboni ye-graphite electrode kwehlile eminyakeni emibili edlule.Ukusebenza kwezinkampani zasekhaya ezihamba phambili ze-graphite electrode kwehle kakhulu ngo-2020. Imboni iyonke isesigabeni sokulindela okuphansi nokungabi nanzuzo.Kodwa-ke, sikholelwa ukuthi ngokuthuthukiswa kwezici eziyisisekelo zemboni kanye nokubuyiselwa kancane kancane kwentengo ye-graphite electrode ezingeni elifanele, ukusebenza kwamabhizinisi ahamba phambili embonini kuzozuza ngokugcwele ekubuyiseleni phansi kwe-graphite. imakethe ye-electrode.Esikhathini esizayo, i-China inesikhala esikhulu sokuthuthukiswa kokwenziwa kwensimbi okufushane, okuzozuzisa ukuthuthukiswa kwe-graphite electrode ye-EAF yenqubo emfushane.Kuphakanyiswa ukuthi amabhizinisi ahamba phambili emkhakheni we-graphite electrode kufanele agxile.
6. amathiphu engozini
Ingxenye yemboni yokwenza insimbi yesithando somlilo kagesi e-China ayilindelekile, futhi intengo yezinto ezingavuthiwe ze-graphite electrode ishintshashintsha kakhulu.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Apr-13-2021