Ngokwengxelo ekhutshwe yi-TrendForce Consulting, njengoko uAnson, i-Infineon kunye nezinye iiprojekthi zentsebenziswano kunye nabavelisi beemoto kunye namandla zicacile, imarike yecandelo lamandla e-SiC iyonke iya kunyuselwa ukuya kwi-2.28 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika ngo-2023 (inqaku le-IT lasekhaya: malunga ne-15.869 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan ), ukunyuka kwama-41.4% unyaka nonyaka.
Ngokutsho kwengxelo, i-semiconductors yesizukulwana sesithathu ibandakanya i-silicon carbide (SiC) kunye ne-gallium nitride (i-GaN), kunye ne-akhawunti ye-SiC ye-80% yexabiso lemveliso. I-SiC ifanelekile kumbane ophezulu kunye neemeko zesicelo eziphezulu zangoku, ezinokuphucula ngakumbi ukusebenza kwezithuthi zombane kunye nenkqubo yezixhobo zamandla avuselelekayo.
Ngokutsho kwe-TrendForce, izicelo ezimbini eziphezulu zamacandelo ombane we-SiC zizithuthi zombane kunye namandla avuselelweyo, afikelele kwi-1.09 yeebhiliyoni zeebhiliyoni kunye ne-210 yezigidi zeedola ngokulandelanayo kwi-2022 (okwangoku malunga ne-RMB7.586 yezigidigidi). Ibalelwa kuma-67.4% kunye ne-13.1% yemalike yecandelo lamandla e-SiC iyonke.
Ngokutsho kweTrendForce Consulting, imarike yecandelo lamandla e-SiC kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-5.33 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2026 (okwangoku malunga ne-37.097 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan). Izicelo eziqhelekileyo zisaxhomekeke kwizithuthi zombane kunye namandla avuselelweyo, kunye nexabiso lemveliso yezithuthi zombane ezifikelela kwi-3.98 yeebhiliyoni zeedola (okwangoku malunga ne-27.701 yebhiliyoni ye-yuan), i-CAGR (izinga lokukhula ngonyaka) malunga ne-38%; Amandla ahlaziyekayo afikelele kwi-410 yezigidi zeedola zaseMelika (malunga ne-2.854 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan okwangoku), i-CAGR malunga ne-19%.
UTesla akakhange athintele abaqhubi beSiC
Ukukhula kwemarike yesilicon carbide (SiC) kule minyaka mihlanu idlulileyo kuxhomekeke kakhulu kuTesla, umenzi wokuqala wesixhobo sokusebenzisa izinto kwizithuthi zombane, kunye noyena mthengi mkhulu namhlanje. Ngoko xa kutshanje ibhengeze ukuba ifumene indlela yokunciphisa inani le-SiC elisetyenziswe kwiimodyuli zamandla ezizayo ngama-75 ekhulwini, ishishini laphoswa kwi-panic, kwaye uluhlu lwabadlali abakhulu bahlupheka.
Ukunqunyulwa kweepesenti ezingama-75 kuvakala kuthusayo, ngakumbi ngaphandle komxholo omninzi, kodwa kukho inani leemeko ezinokubakho emva kwesibhengezo - akukho nanye ebonisa ukuncitshiswa okumangalisayo kwemfuno yezinto okanye imarike yonke.
Imeko 1: Izixhobo ezimbalwa
I-48-chip inverter kwi-Tesla Model 3 isekelwe kwi-teknoloji entsha ekhoyo ngexesha lophuhliso (2017). Nangona kunjalo, njengoko inkqubo ye-ecosystem ye-SiC ikhula, kukho ithuba lokwandisa ukusebenza kwee-substrates ze-SiC ngoyilo lwenkqubo oluphucukileyo olunokuhlanganiswa okuphezulu. Nangona kungenakwenzeka ukuba iteknoloji enye iya kunciphisa i-SiC nge-75%, ukuqhubela phambili okuhlukeneyo ekupakishweni, ukupholisa (oko kukuthi, i-double-side kunye ne-liquid-cooled), kunye ne-channel ye-architecture yesixhobo kunokukhokelela kwi-compact ngakumbi, izixhobo ezisebenza ngcono. Ngokungathandabuzekiyo uTesla uya kuphonononga ithuba elinjalo, kwaye i-75% isibalo esinokuthi sibhekiselele kuyilo oludityanisiweyo lwe-inverter olunciphisa inani lokufa elilisebenzisayo ukusuka kwi-48 ukuya kwi-12. ukunciphisa okulungileyo kwezixhobo zeSiC njengoko kucetyisiwe.
Okwangoku, ezinye ii-Oems zisungula izithuthi ze-800V kwi-2023-24 ziya kuthembela kwi-SiC, engoyena mgqatswa wamandla aphezulu kunye nezixhobo eziphezulu zombane kule nxalenye. Ngenxa yoko, i-Oems ayinakubona impembelelo yexesha elifutshane kwi-SiC yokungena.
Le meko iqaqambisa utshintsho kwimarike yeemoto zeSiC ukusuka kwizinto ezikrwada ukuya kwizixhobo kunye nokudityaniswa kweenkqubo. Iimodyuli zamandla ngoku zidlala indima ebalulekileyo ekuphuculeni ixabiso elipheleleyo kunye nokusebenza, kwaye bonke abadlali abakhulu kwindawo ye-SiC banamashishini emodyuli yamandla kunye nobuchule babo bokupakisha bangaphakathi - kuquka i-onsemi, i-STMicroelectronics kunye ne-Infineon. I-Wolfspeed ngoku iyanda ngaphaya kwezixhobo ezingasetyenziswanga ukuya kwizixhobo.
Imeko yesi-2: Izithuthi ezincinci ezineemfuno zamandla aphantsi
UTesla usebenze kwimoto entsha yokungena ukwenza izithuthi zayo zibe lula ukuyisebenzisa. I-Model 2 okanye i-Model Q iya kuba yindleko ephantsi kwaye idibene ngakumbi kunezithuthi zabo zangoku, kwaye iimoto ezincinci ezineempawu ezincinci aziyi kufuna umxholo we-SiC ukuze zibe namandla. Nangona kunjalo, iimodeli zayo ezikhoyo zinokuthi zigcine uyilo olufanayo kwaye zisafuna isixa esikhulu seSiC iyonke.
Kubo bonke ubuhle bayo, i-SiC yinto ebiza kakhulu, kwaye ii-Oems ezininzi zivakalise umnqweno wokunciphisa iindleko. Ngoku ukuba i-Tesla, i-OEM enkulu kunazo zonke kwindawo, iphawule ngamaxabiso, oku kunokubeka uxinzelelo kwii-IDM zokunciphisa iindleko. Ngaba isibhengezo sikaTesla sinokuba sisicwangciso sokuqhuba izisombululo ezixabisa kakhulu? Kuya kuba ngumdla ukubona ukuba ishishini lisabela njani kwiiveki / kwiinyanga ezizayo…
Ii-IDs zisebenzisa izicwangciso ezahlukeneyo zokunciphisa iindleko, ezinjengokukhangela i-substrate evela kubaboneleli abahlukeneyo, ukwandisa imveliso ngokwandisa umthamo kunye nokutshintshela kwii-wafers ezinkulu ze-diameter (6 "kunye ne-8"). Uxinzelelo olwandisiweyo lunokwenzeka ukuba lukhawulezise ijika lokufunda kubadlali kulo lonke ikhonkco lokubonelela kule ndawo. Ukongeza, ukunyuka kweendleko kunokwenza i-SiC ifikeleleke ngakumbi kungekuphela nje kwabanye abenzi beemoto kodwa nakwezinye izicelo, ezinokuqhubeleka phambili ukwamkelwa kwayo.
Imeko yesi-3: Faka ezinye izixhobo endaweni ye-SIC
Abahlalutyi beYole Intelligence babeke iliso elibukhali kwezinye iitekhnoloji ezinokukhuphisana neSiC kwizithuthi zombane. Umzekelo, i-Grooved SiC inikezela ngamandla aphezulu oxinaniso- ngaba siza kuyibona ithatha indawo yeSiC esicaba kwixesha elizayo?
Ngo-2023, ii-Si IGBT ziya kusetyenziswa kwii-inverters ze-EV kwaye zibekwe kakuhle ngaphakathi kwishishini ngokubhekiselele kumthamo kunye neendleko. Abavelisi basaphucula ukusebenza, kwaye le substrate ingabonisa amandla emodeli yamandla aphantsi ekhankanywe kwimeko emibini, eyenza kube lula ukunyusa ubuninzi. Mhlawumbi i-SiC iya kugcinwa kwiimoto zikaTesla eziphucukileyo, ezinamandla ngakumbi.
I-GaN-on-Si ibonisa amandla amakhulu kwimarike yeemoto, kodwa abahlalutyi babona oku njengokuqwalaselwa kwexesha elide (ngaphezu kweminyaka eyi-5 kwi-inverters kwihlabathi lemveli). Ngelixa bekukho iingxoxo kwishishini elijikeleze iGaN, imfuno kaTesla yokunciphisa iindleko kunye nokunyuka kobunzima kwenza ukuba kungenzeki ukuba iya kufudukela kwizinto ezitsha kakhulu nezingavuthwanga kakhulu kuneSiC kwixesha elizayo. Kodwa ngaba uTesla unokuthatha inyathelo elinesibindi lokwamkela le mathiriyeli intsha kuqala? Lixesha kuphela eliya kuxela.
Ukuthunyelwa kweWafer kuchaphazeleke kancinci, kodwa kunokubakho iimarike ezintsha
Ngelixa i-push yokudityaniswa okukhulu iya kuba nempembelelo encinci kwintengiso yesixhobo, inokuba nefuthe ekuthuthweni kwe-wafer. Nangona ingekho kakhulu njengoko abaninzi bebecinga ekuqaleni, imeko nganye iqikelela ukuhla kwemfuno ye-SiC, enokuchaphazela iinkampani ze-semiconductor.
Nangona kunjalo, inokonyusa unikezelo lwezixhobo kwezinye iimarike ezikhule kunye nemarike yemoto kule minyaka mihlanu idlulileyo. I-Auto ilindele ukuba onke amashishini akhule kakhulu kwiminyaka ezayo - phantse ngenxa yeendleko eziphantsi kunye nokufikelela okwandisiweyo kwizixhobo.
Isibhengezo sikaTesla sithumele umothuko kwishishini, kodwa xa uphinda ucingisisa, imbonakalo yeSiC ihlala intle kakhulu. UTesla uya phi ngokulandelayo-kwaye ishishini liya kusabela kwaye liziqhelanise njani? Ifanele ingqalelo yethu.
Ixesha lokuposa: Mar-27-2023