NgoJanuwari 30, iBritish Petroleum (BP) yakhupha ingxelo ye-2023 "World Energy Outlook", igxininisa ukuba i-fossil fuels kwixesha elifutshane ibaluleke kakhulu kwinguqu yamandla, kodwa ukunqongophala kokunikezelwa kwamandla ehlabathi, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kuyaqhubeka nokukhula kunye nezinye izinto. kulindeleke ukuba ikhawulezise inguqu eluhlaza kunye nekhabhoni ephantsi, ingxelo ibeka phambili iindlela ezine zophuhliso lwamandla ehlabathi, kwaye iqikelele uphuhliso oluphantsi lwe-hydrocarbon ukuya kwi-2050.
Ingxelo ibonisa ukuba kwixesha elifutshane, amafutha e-fossil aya kudlala indima ebalulekileyo kwinkqubo yokutshintsha amandla, kodwa ukunqongophala kwamandla kwihlabathi jikelele, ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kunye nokuvela rhoqo kwemozulu embi kuya kukhawulezisa amandla omhlaba ahlaza kwaye aphantsi. -utshintsho lwekhabhoni. Utshintsho olusebenzayo lufuna ngaxeshanye ukujongana nokhuseleko lwamandla, ukufikeleleka kunye nokuzinza; Ikamva lamandla ehlabathi liza kubonisa iindlela ezine eziphambili: indima ehlayo yamandla e-hydrocarbon, uphuhliso olukhawulezayo lwamandla ahlaziyekayo, ukunyuka kweqondo lokufakelwa kombane, kunye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kokusetyenziswa kwe-hydrocarbon ephantsi.
Ingxelo ithatha ukuvela kweenkqubo zamandla nge-2050 phantsi kweemeko ezintathu: inguqu ekhawulezileyo, i-net zero kunye namandla amatsha. Ingxelo icebisa ukuba phantsi kwemeko yenguqu ekhawulezileyo, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kuya kuncitshiswa malunga ne-75%; Kwimeko ye-net-zero, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kuya kuncitshiswa ngaphezu kwe-95; Ngaphantsi kwemeko entsha eguquguqukayo (ecinga ukuba imeko iyonke yophuhliso lwamandla ehlabathi kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo, kubandakanya inkqubela phambili yetekhnoloji, ukuncitshiswa kweendleko, njl. njl., kunye nokuqina komgaqo-nkqubo wehlabathi kuya kuhlala kungatshintshi kwiminyaka emihlanu ukuya kwengama-30 ezayo), ikhabhoni yehlabathi. Ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo kuya kunyuka ngo-2020 kwaye kunciphise ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni yehlabathi malunga ne-30% ngo-2050 xa kuthelekiswa no-2019.
Ingxelo ithi i-hydrocarbons ephantsi idlala indima ephambili kwinguqu yamandla ekhabhoni ephantsi, ngakumbi kumashishini, ezothutho kunye namanye amacandelo ekunzima ukuwafaka umbane. I-hydrogen eluhlaza kunye ne-blue hydrogen yiyona hydrocarbon ephantsi, kwaye ukubaluleka kwe-hydrogen eluhlaza kuya kuphuculwa ngenkqubo yokuguqulwa kwamandla. Urhwebo ngeHydrojeni lubandakanya urhwebo lwemibhobho yengingqi yokuthutha i-hydrogen esulungekileyo kunye norhwebo lwaselwandle kwizinto eziphuma kwi-hydrogen.
Ingxelo iqikelela ukuba ngo-2030, phantsi kotshintsho olukhawulezileyo kunye neemeko zero zero, imfuno ephantsi ye-hydrocarbon iya kufikelela kwi-30 yezigidi zeetoni / ngonyaka kunye ne-50 yezigidi zeetoni / ngonyaka, ngokulandelanayo, kunye neninzi yala ma-hydrocarbons aphantsi asetyenziswa njengemithombo yamandla kunye nee-arhente zokunciphisa ishishini. ukubuyisela irhasi yendalo, ihydrogen esekwe ngamalahle (esetyenziswa njengezinto ezikrwada kwimizi-mveliso yokucokisa, ukuvelisa iammonia kunye methanol) kunye namalahle. Intsalela iya kusetyenziswa kwimichiza nakwimveliso yesamente.
Ngo-2050, imveliso yensimbi iya kusebenzisa malunga ne-40% yemfuno ephantsi ye-hydrocarbon ephantsi kwicandelo lezoshishino, kwaye phantsi kweenguqu ezikhawulezayo kunye ne-net zero scenarios, i-hydrocarbons ephantsi iya kwenza malunga ne-5% kunye ne-10% yokusetyenziswa kwamandla onke, ngokulandelanayo.
Ingxelo iphinda iqikelele ukuba, phantsi kwenguqu ekhawulezileyo kunye neemeko zero zero, i-hydrogen derivatives iya kuba ne-10 pesenti kunye ne-30 yepesenti yemfuno yamandla omoya kunye neepesenti ze-30 kunye neepesenti ze-55 zemfuno yamandla aseLwandle, ngokulandelanayo, ngo-2050, kunye uninzi lwabo lusiya kwicandelo lezothutho ezindleleni ezinzima; Ngo-2050, isixa se-hydrocarbons ephantsi kunye ne-hydrogen derivatives iya kuba ne-10% kunye ne-20% yokusetyenziswa kwamandla apheleleyo kwicandelo lezothutho, ngokulandelanayo, phantsi kwenguqu ekhawulezayo kunye ne-net zero scenarios.
Okwangoku, ixabiso le-hydrogen eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka lihlala lisezantsi kunelo le-hydrogen eluhlaza kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi, kodwa umahluko weendleko uya kuncipha ngokuthe ngcembe njengoko iteknoloji yokuvelisa i-hydrogen eluhlaza iqhubela phambili, ukonyuka kobuchule bokuvelisa kunye nexabiso lamafutha efosili linyuka, ingxelo. watsho. Ngaphantsi kwenguqu ekhawulezileyo kunye ne-net-zero imeko, ingxelo iqikelela ukuba i-hydrogen eluhlaza iya kuphendula malunga neepesenti ezingama-60 ze-hydrocarbon ephantsi iyonke ngo-2030, inyuke iye kuma-65 ekhulwini ngo-2050.
Ingxelo iphinda ibonise ukuba indlela i-hydrogen ethengiswa ngayo iya kuhluka ngokuxhomekeke ekusetyenzisweni kokugqibela. Kwizicelo ezifuna i-hydrogen ecocekileyo (njengeenkqubo zokufudumeza eziphezulu kwimizi-mveliso okanye ukuthutha isithuthi sendlela), imfuno inokungeniswa kwiindawo ezifanelekileyo ngokusebenzisa imibhobho; Kwiindawo apho izinto eziphuma kwihydrogen zifuneka khona (ezifana neammonia kunye nemethanol kwiinqanawa), ixabiso lothutho ngezinto zehydrogen liphantsi ngokwentelekiso kwaye imfuno inokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe ukusuka kwelona lizwe lixhaphake kakhulu kwihlabathi jikelele.
Kwi-European Union, umzekelo, ingxelo iqikelela ukuba phantsi kwenguqu ekhawulezileyo kunye ne-net-zero, i-EU iya kuvelisa malunga ne-70% yee-hydrocarbons zayo eziphantsi ngo-2030, ziwela kwi-60% ngo-2050. Iipesenti ezingama-50 zehydrogen esulungekileyo iya kuthunyelwa kumazwe angaphandle ngemibhobho evela kuMntla Afrika nakwamanye amazwe aseYurophu (umzekelo, iNorway, iUK), kunye namanye. Iipesenti ezingama-50 ziya kuthunyelwa ngolwandle kwimarike yehlabathi ngendlela yeemveliso ze-hydrogen.
Ixesha lokuposa: Feb-06-2023