Musi wa30 Ndira, British Petroleum (BP) yakaburitsa 2023 "World Energy Outlook" chirevo, ichisimbisa kuti mafuta efossil munguva pfupi akakosha mukuchinja kwesimba, asi kushomeka kwesimba repasi rose, kubuda kwekabhoni kuri kuramba kuchiwedzera uye zvimwe zvinhu. inotarisirwa kusimudzira shanduko yegirinhi uye yakaderera-kabhoni, chirevo chakaisa mberi mafambiro mana ekuvandudzwa kwesimba repasi rose, uye kufungidzira kuderera kwehydrocarbon kuvandudzwa kusvika 2050.
Chirevo ichi chinonongedza kuti munguva pfupi, mafuta ezvicherwa achaita basa rakakosha mukuchinja kwesimba, asi kushomeka kwesimba repasi rose, kuwedzera kunoramba kuripo kwekubuda kwekabhoni uye kuwanzoitika kwemamiriro ekunze akanyanya kuchawedzera simba repasi rose rakasvibira uye rakaderera. - carbon transition. Shanduko inobudirira inoda panguva imwe chete kugadzirisa kuchengetedza kwesimba, kugona uye kusimba; Ramangwana resimba repasi rose richaratidza maitiro makuru mana: kuderera kwesimba rehydrocarbon simba, kukurumidza kuvandudzwa kwesimba rinowanikwazve, kuwedzera kwedhigirii remagetsi, uye kuenderera mberi kwekukura kwekushomeka kwehydrocarbon kushandiswa.
Chirevo chinotora shanduko yesimba masisitimu kuburikidza ne2050 pasi pezviitiko zvitatu: yakakurumidza shanduko, net zero uye simba idzva. Chirevo chinoratidza kuti pasi pemamiriro ekuchinja kwakakurumidza, kubuda kwekabhoni kwaizoderedzwa ne75%; Mumamiriro ezvinhu e-net-zero, carbon emissions ichaderedzwa neanopfuura 95; Pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu matsva (anofunga kuti mamiriro epasi rose ekuvandudzwa kwesimba renyika mumakore mashanu apfuura, kusanganisira kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji, kuderedzwa kwemitengo, nezvimwewo, uye kusimba kwemutemo wepasirese kucharamba kusingachinji mumakore mashanu kusvika makumi matatu anotevera), pasi rose kabhoni. emissions ichakwira mu2020s uye inoderedza kuburitswa kwekabhoni pasi rose ne30% ne2050 kana zvichienzaniswa ne2019.
Chirevo ichi chinopikisa kuti mahydrocarbon akaderera anoita basa rakakosha mukushanduka kwesimba rakaderera-kabhoni, kunyanya mumaindasitiri, zvekufambisa uye mamwe masekete anonetsa kuisa magetsi. Green hydrogen uye yeblue hydrogen ndiyo huru yakaderera hydrocarbon, uye kukosha kwegirinhi haidrojeni kuchawedzerwa nemaitiro ekushandura simba. Kutengeserana kweHydrogen kunosanganisira kutengeserana kwepombi yedunhu yekutakura yakachena haidrojeni uye kutengeserana kwemugungwa kune zvinobva kuhydrogen.
Chirevo chinofanotaura kuti panosvika 2030, pasi peiyo kukurumidza shanduko uye net zero mamiriro, yakaderera hydrocarbon kudiwa kuchasvika 30 miriyoni matani/gore uye 50 miriyoni matani/gore, zvichiteerana, neakawanda eaya mahydrocarbon akaderera ari kushandiswa sesimba masosi uye maindasitiri ekudzikisa maajenti. kutsiva gasi rechisikigo, marasha-akavakirwa hydrogen (inoshandiswa semaindasitiri emidziyo yekunatsa, kugadzira ammonia nemethanol) nemarasha. Asara achashandiswa mumakemikari nekugadzira simende.
Pakazosvika 2050, kugadzirwa kwesimbi kuchashandisa inenge 40% yehuwandu hwakaderera hwe hydrocarbon muchikamu cheindasitiri, uye pasi pekukurumidza shanduko uye net zero scenarios, yakaderera hydrocarbons ichaita inosvika 5% uye 10% yesimba rose rekushandisa, zvichiteerana.
Chirevo ichi chinofanotaurawo kuti, pasi pekukurumidza kushanduka uye net zero zviitiko, hydrogen derivatives ichaita 10 muzana uye 30 muzana yekudiwa kwesimba rendege uye 30 muzana uye 55 muzana yeMarine simba rinodiwa, zvichiteerana, ne2050, ne vazhinji vevamwe vanoenda kune inorema road transport sector; Pakazosvika 2050, huwandu hwemahydrocarbons akaderera uye hydrogen zvinobva kune gumi kubva muzana uye makumi maviri muzana ezvese simba rekushandisa muchikamu chekutakura, zvichiteerana, pasi pekukasira shanduko uye net zero scenarios.
Parizvino, mutengo weblue hydrogen unowanzo kuderera pane wegirinhi hydrogen munzvimbo zhinji dzepasi, asi mutsauko wemitengo uchadzikira zvishoma nezvishoma sezvo tekinoroji yekugadzira hydrogen inofambira mberi, kugona kwekugadzira kunowedzera uye mutengo wemafuta echinyakare unowedzera, chirevo. akadaro. Pasi peiyo kukurumidza shanduko uye net-zero mamiriro, mushumo unofanotaura kuti girini yehydrogen ichaverengera inosvika makumi matanhatu muzana eiyo yakaderera hydrocarbon panosvika 2030, ichikwira kusvika 65 muzana panosvika 2050.
Chirevo chinoratidzawo kuti nzira inotengeswa haidrojeni ichasiyana zvichienderana nekupera kushandiswa. Kune maapplication anoda pure hydrogen (senge maindasitiri epamusoro-tembiricha yekudziya maitiro kana kutakura mota yemumugwagwa), iyo inodiwa inogona kutengwa kunze kwenyika kubva kunzvimbo dzakakodzera kuburikidza nemapaipi; Kunzvimbo dzinodiwa ma hydrogen derivatives (senge ammonia nemethanol yezvikepe), mutengo wekutakura uchipfuura nehydrogen derivatives wakadzikira uye chinodiwa chinogona kutengwa kunze kwenyika kubva kunyika dzakanyanya kudhura pasi rose.
MuEuropean Union, semuenzaniso, mushumo unofanotaura kuti pasi pekukasira kwekuchinja uye net-zero mamiriro, EU ichagadzira inenge 70% yemahydrocarbon ayo akaderera panosvika 2030, inowira ku60% ne2050. 50 muzana yehydrogen yakachena ichatengwa kunze kwenyika kuburikidza nemapaipi kubva kuNorth Africa nedzimwe nyika dzeEurope (semuenzaniso Norway, UK), uye imwe 50 muzana ichatengeswa kunze negungwa kubva kumusika wepasi rose nenzira yezvinobvamo zvehydrogen.
Nguva yekutumira: Feb-06-2023