Raporo yashyizwe ahagaragara na TrendForce Consulting, kubera ko Anson, Infineon n'indi mishinga y'ubufatanye hamwe n’abakora amamodoka n’ingufu bisobanutse neza, isoko rusange ry’ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi rya SiC rizamurwa kugeza kuri miliyari 2.28 z'amadolari ya Amerika mu 2023 (Icyitonderwa mu rugo: hafi miliyari 15.869 ), hejuru ya 41.4% umwaka-ku-mwaka.
Nk’uko iyi raporo ibigaragaza, igice cya gatatu cy’ibice bibiri bya semiconductor zirimo karubide ya silicon (SiC) na nitride ya gallium (GaN), naho SiC ikagira 80% by’agaciro kasohotse muri rusange. SiC ikwiranye na voltage nini hamwe nibisabwa murwego rwo hejuru, bishobora kurushaho kunoza imikorere yimodoka zamashanyarazi hamwe na sisitemu yingufu zishobora kuvugururwa.
Nk’uko byatangajwe na TrendForce, ibyifuzo bibiri bya mbere mu gukoresha amashanyarazi ya SiC ni ibinyabiziga by'amashanyarazi n'ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa, byageze kuri miliyari 1.09 na miliyoni 210 z'amadolari mu 2022 (kuri ubu agera kuri miliyari 7.586). Ifite 67.4% na 13.1% yisoko ryamashanyarazi yose ya SiC.
Nk’uko TrendForce Consulting ibitangaza, biteganijwe ko isoko rya SiC rigizwe na miliyari 5.33 z'amadolari mu 2026 (kuri ubu agera kuri miliyari 37.097). Porogaramu nyamukuru iracyashingira ku binyabiziga by’amashanyarazi n’ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa, hamwe n’umusaruro w’ibinyabiziga by’amashanyarazi bigera kuri miliyari 3.98 z'amadolari (kuri ubu agera kuri miliyari 27.701), CAGR (umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bw’umwaka) ugera kuri 38%; Ingufu zisubirwamo zageze kuri miliyoni 410 z'amadolari y'Amerika (hafi miliyari 2.854 z'amafaranga y'u Rwanda), CAGR ya 19%.
Tesla ntiyigeze ibuza abakora SiC
Ubwiyongere bw'isoko rya silicon karbide (SiC) mu myaka itanu ishize ahanini byatewe ahanini na Tesla, uruganda rwa mbere rukora ibikoresho byumwimerere rukoresha ibikoresho mumodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi, numuguzi munini muri iki gihe. Ubwo rero iherutse gutangaza ko yabonye uburyo bwo kugabanya umubare wa SiC wakoreshejwe mu gihe kizaza cy’amashanyarazi ku gipimo cya 75%, inganda zajugunywe mu bwoba, kandi ibarura ry’abakinnyi bakomeye ryarababajwe.
75 ku ijana byagabanije amajwi ateye ubwoba, cyane cyane adafite aho ahuriye, ariko hariho ibintu byinshi bishobora kuba inyuma yiri tangazo - nta na kimwe muri byo cyerekana ko igabanuka rikabije ry’ibikoresho cyangwa isoko muri rusange.
Urugero rwa 1: Ibikoresho bike
Inverter ya 48-chip muri Tesla Model 3 ishingiye ku buhanga bugezweho buboneka mugihe cyiterambere (2017). Ariko, uko urusobe rwibinyabuzima rwa SiC rukuze, hari amahirwe yo kwagura imikorere ya sisitemu ya SiC binyuze muburyo bugezweho bwa sisitemu igezweho hamwe no kwishyira hamwe. Mugihe bidashoboka ko ikoranabuhanga rimwe rizagabanya SiC 75%, iterambere ritandukanye mugupakira, gukonjesha (nukuvuga impande zombi na flux-gukonjesha), hamwe nibikoresho byubatswe bishobora kuganisha kubikoresho byoroshye, bikora neza. Nta gushidikanya ko Tesla izashakisha amahirwe nk'aya, kandi imibare ya 75% ishobora kuba yerekeza ku gishushanyo mbonera cya inverter igabanya umubare w'impfu ikoresha kuva kuri 48 ikagera kuri 12. Icyakora, niba aribyo, ntabwo bihwanye na a kugabanya neza ibikoresho bya SiC nkuko byasabwe.
Hagati aho, izindi Oems zitangiza imodoka 800V muri 2023-24 zizakomeza kwishingikiriza kuri SiC, akaba ari we mukandida mwiza ku mashanyarazi menshi n’ibikoresho byapimwe n’umuriro mwinshi muri iki gice. Nkigisubizo, Oems ntishobora kubona ingaruka zigihe gito kuri SiC kwinjira.
Iki kibazo cyerekana ihinduka ryisoko ryimodoka ya SiC yibanda kubikoresho fatizo kugeza ibikoresho hamwe no guhuza sisitemu. Module yingufu ubu ifite uruhare runini mugutezimbere igiciro nigikorwa muri rusange, kandi nabakinnyi bose bakomeye mumwanya wa SiC bafite imishinga yububasha bwamashanyarazi bafite ubushobozi bwo gupakira imbere - harimo onsemi, STMicroelectronics na Infineon. Wolfspeed ubu iraguka irenze ibikoresho fatizo kubikoresho.
Urugero rwa 2: Ibinyabiziga bito bifite ingufu nke zisabwa
Tesla yagiye ikora imodoka nshya yinjira murwego rwo koroshya ibinyabiziga byayo. Model 2 cyangwa Model Q izaba ihendutse kandi yoroheje kuruta ibinyabiziga byabo byubu, kandi imodoka nto zifite ibintu bike ntizikenera ibintu byinshi bya SiC kugirango zibaha imbaraga. Nyamara, moderi zayo zisanzwe zirashobora kugumana igishushanyo kimwe kandi ziracyasaba umubare munini wa SiC muri rusange.
Kubyiza byose, SiC nibikoresho bihenze, kandi Oems nyinshi zagaragaje ubushake bwo kugabanya ibiciro. Noneho ko Tesla, OEM nini mu kirere, yagize icyo ivuga ku biciro, ibi bishobora gushyira igitutu ku IDM kugirango igabanye ibiciro. Ese itangazo rya Tesla rishobora kuba ingamba zo gutwara ibisubizo birushanwe? Bizaba bishimishije kubona uko inganda zifata mubyumweru / amezi biri imbere…
Idms ikoresha ingamba zitandukanye kugirango igabanye ibiciro, nko gushakisha substrate kubatanga ibicuruzwa bitandukanye, kwagura umusaruro mukongera ubushobozi no guhinduranya waferi nini ya diameter (6 “na 8 ″). Umuvuduko wiyongereye birashoboka kwihutisha umurongo wo kwiga kubakinyi murwego rwo gutanga muri kano karere. Byongeye kandi, ibiciro bizamuka bishobora gutuma SiC ihendwa cyane kubandi bakora amamodoka gusa ariko no kubindi bikorwa, bishobora kurushaho gutuma ikoreshwa ryayo.
Urugero rwa 3: Simbuza SIC nibindi bikoresho
Abasesenguzi muri Yole Intelligence bakurikiranira hafi ubundi buhanga bushobora guhangana na SiC mu binyabiziga by'amashanyarazi. Kurugero, groove SiC itanga ingufu zingana - tuzabona isimbuye SiC igororotse mugihe kizaza?
Kugeza 2023, Si IGBTs izakoreshwa muri inverter ya EV kandi ihagaze neza muruganda mubijyanye nubushobozi nigiciro. Ababikora baracyatezimbere imikorere, kandi iyi substrate irashobora kwerekana ubushobozi bwikigereranyo cyingufu nkeya zavuzwe mugice cya kabiri, cyoroshe kwipimisha mubwinshi. Ahari SiC izagenerwa imodoka za Tesla zateye imbere, zikomeye.
GaN-on-Si yerekana imbaraga zikomeye ku isoko ry’imodoka, ariko abasesenguzi babona ko ari ukureba igihe kirekire (mu myaka irenga 5 muri inverters ku isi gakondo). Mugihe haribiganiro bimwe muruganda hafi ya GaN, Tesla ikeneye kugabanya ibiciro no kwaguka kwinshi bituma bidashoboka ko izimukira mubintu bishya kandi bidakuze kurusha SiC mugihe kizaza. Ariko Tesla irashobora gutera intambwe ishimishije yo gufata ibi bikoresho bishya? Igihe nikigera.
Kohereza ibicuruzwa byagize ingaruka nkeya, ariko hashobora kubaho amasoko mashya
Mugihe gusunika kwinshi bizagira ingaruka nke kumasoko yibikoresho, birashobora kugira ingaruka kubyoherejwe wafer. Nubwo bidatangaje nkuko benshi babitekerezaga, buri kintu cyerekana ko igabanuka rya SiC ryagabanuka, rishobora kugira ingaruka kumasosiyete ikora imashanyarazi.
Ariko, irashobora kongera itangwa ryibikoresho ku yandi masoko yakuze hamwe nisoko ryimodoka mumyaka itanu ishize. Imodoka iteganya ko inganda zose zizatera imbere cyane mumyaka iri imbere - hafi bitewe nigiciro gito no kongera ibikoresho.
Amatangazo ya Tesla yohereje impungenge mu nganda, ariko ku bindi bitekerezo, icyerekezo cya SiC gikomeje kuba cyiza cyane. Tesla ijya he - kandi ni gute inganda zizitwara kandi zigahinduka? Birakwiye ko tubyitaho.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Werurwe-27-2023