Ku ya 30 Mutarama, peteroli yo mu Bwongereza (BP) yashyize ahagaragara raporo ya 2023 “World Energy Outlook”, ishimangira ko ibicanwa biva mu kirere mu gihe gito ari ngombwa cyane mu gihe cyo guhindura ingufu, ariko ibura ry’ingufu ku isi, imyuka ya karubone ikomeje kwiyongera n’ibindi bintu Biteganijwe ko byihutisha inzibacyuho y’icyatsi na karuboni nkeya, raporo yashyize ahagaragara inzira enye z’iterambere ry’ingufu ku isi, kandi iteganya ko iterambere rya hydrocarubone rito kugeza mu 2050.
Raporo yerekana ko mu gihe gito, ibicanwa by’ibinyabuzima bizagira uruhare runini mu nzira y’ingufu z’ingufu, ariko ibura ry’ingufu ku isi, ubwiyongere bukabije bw’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere ndetse n’ibihe bikunze kugaragara by’ikirere gikabije bizihutisha ingufu z’isi ku isi icyatsi kandi gito -inzibacyuho. Inzibacyuho inoze ikeneye icyarimwe gukemura ikibazo cyumutekano wingufu, ubushobozi kandi burambye; Iterambere ry’ingufu ku isi rizerekana inzira enye zingenzi: igabanuka ry’ingufu za hydrocarubone, iterambere ryihuse ry’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu, kwiyongera kw’amashanyarazi, no gukomeza kwiyongera kw’ikoreshwa rya hydrocarubone.
Raporo ivuga ko ubwihindurize bwa sisitemu y’ingufu kugeza mu 2050 mu bihe bitatu: inzibacyuho yihuse, net zeru nimbaraga nshya. Raporo yerekana ko mu gihe cyihuta cy’inzibacyuho, ibyuka bihumanya ikirere byagabanukaho 75%; Muri net-zeru, ibyuka bihumanya ikirere bizagabanuka kurenga 95; Mubihe bishya bigenda neza (bivuze ko muri rusange iterambere ryiterambere ryisi yose mumyaka itanu ishize, harimo iterambere ryikoranabuhanga, kugabanya ibiciro, nibindi, hamwe nimbaraga za politiki yisi yose ntizahinduka mumyaka itanu iri imbere 30), karubone kwisi imyuka ihumanya ikirere izagera kuri 2020 kandi igabanye imyuka ya karuboni ku isi hafi 30% muri 2050 ugereranije na 2019.
Raporo ivuga ko hydrocarbone nkeya igira uruhare runini mu guhindura ingufu za karubone nkeya, cyane cyane mu nganda, ubwikorezi no mu zindi nzego zigoye amashanyarazi. Icyatsi kibisi na hydrogène yubururu ningenzi hydrocarubone yo hasi, kandi akamaro ka hydrogène yicyatsi kaziyongera hamwe nuburyo bwo guhindura ingufu. Ubucuruzi bwa hydrogène bukubiyemo ubucuruzi bwo mu karere bwo gutwara hydrogène nziza n’ubucuruzi bwo mu nyanja bukomoka kuri hydrogène.
Raporo iteganya ko mu 2030, mu gihe cy’inzibacyuho yihuse hamwe na net zero zero, ingufu za hydrocarubone nkeya zizagera kuri toni miliyoni 30 / umwaka na toni miliyoni 50 / ku mwaka, aho usanga amenshi muri ayo mavuta ya hydrocarbone akoreshwa nk’ingufu ndetse n’ibikorwa bigabanya inganda. gusimbuza gaze karemano, hydrogène ishingiye ku makara (ikoreshwa nkibikoresho fatizo byo mu nganda mu gutunganya, gutanga ammonia na methanol) hamwe n’amakara. Ibisigaye bizakoreshwa mu miti no gukora sima.
Kugeza mu 2050, umusaruro w’ibyuma uzakoresha hafi 40% y’ibikenerwa na hydrocarubone nkeya mu rwego rw’inganda, kandi mu gihe cy’inzibacyuho yihuse hamwe na zero zero, hydrocarbone nkeya izagera kuri 5% na 10% by’ingufu zose zikoreshwa.
Raporo iteganya kandi ko, mu gihe cyihuta cyihuse hamwe na zeru zeru, ibikomoka kuri hydrogène bizajya bingana na 10 ku ijana na 30 ku ijana by’ingufu zikoreshwa mu ndege na 30% na 55% by’ingufu zikomoka mu nyanja, mu 2050, hamwe na benshi basigaye bajya murwego rwo gutwara abantu n'ibintu; Kugeza mu 2050, igiteranyo cya hydrocarbone nkeya n’ibikomoka kuri hydrogène bizaba bingana na 10% na 20% by’ingufu zose zikoreshwa mu rwego rwo gutwara abantu, bitewe n’inzibacyuho yihuse hamwe na zero zero.
Kugeza ubu, igiciro cya hydrogène yubururu ubusanzwe kiri munsi y’icyatsi cya hydrogène kibisi mu bice byinshi by’isi, ariko itandukaniro ry’ibiciro rizagenda rigabanuka buhoro buhoro uko ikoranabuhanga rya hydrogène ry’icyatsi ritera imbere, umusaruro wiyongera ndetse n’igiciro cy’ibicanwa gakondo byiyongera. ati. Mugihe cyihuta cyihuse hamwe na net-zeru, raporo ivuga ko hydrogène yicyatsi izaba hafi 60% ya hydrocarubone nkeya muri 2030, ikazamuka igera kuri 65% muri 2050.
Raporo yerekana kandi ko uburyo hydrogène icuruzwa bizatandukana bitewe n’imikoreshereze yanyuma. Kubisabwa bisaba hydrogène isukuye (nk'inganda zishyushya ubushyuhe bwo mu nganda cyangwa gutwara ibinyabiziga byo mu muhanda), icyifuzo gishobora gutumizwa mu turere bireba binyuze mu miyoboro; Kubice bikenewe ibikomoka kuri hydrogène (nka ammonia na methanol kumato), ikiguzi cyo gutwara ibicuruzwa biva muri hydrogène ni gito kandi icyifuzo gishobora gutumizwa mubihugu byinjiza amafaranga menshi kwisi yose.
Urugero, mu Muryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi, raporo ivuga ko mu gihe cy’inzibacyuho yihuse hamwe na net-zero, Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi uzatanga umusaruro wa 70% bya hydrocarbone nkeya mu 2030, bikamanuka kugera kuri 60% muri 2050. Mu bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga biva mu mahanga, hafi 50 ku ijana bya hydrogène yuzuye izatumizwa mu mahanga binyuze mu miyoboro iva muri Afurika y'Amajyaruguru no mu bindi bihugu by’Uburayi (urugero: Noruveje, Ubwongereza), naho 50 ku ijana bikazatumizwa mu nyanja n’isoko ku isi ku buryo bukomoka kuri hydrogène.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gashyantare-06-2023