Malinga ndi lipoti lotulutsidwa ndi TrendForce Consulting, monga Anson, Infineon ndi ntchito zina zogwirira ntchito limodzi ndi opanga magalimoto ndi magetsi zikuwonekeratu, msika wonse wamagetsi a SiC udzakwezedwa mpaka madola 2.28 biliyoni aku US mu 2023 (Chidziwitso chakunyumba cha IT: pafupifupi 15.869 biliyoni ya yuan ), kukwera ndi 41.4% pachaka.
Malinga ndi lipotilo, ma semiconductors a m'badwo wachitatu akuphatikizapo silicon carbide (SiC) ndi gallium nitride (GaN), ndipo SiC imawerengera 80% ya mtengo wonsewo. SiC ndiyoyenera kugwiritsa ntchito ma voliyumu okwera kwambiri komanso mawonekedwe aposachedwa, omwe amatha kupititsa patsogolo kuyendetsa bwino kwa magalimoto amagetsi ndi zida zamagetsi zongowonjezwdwa.
Malinga ndi TrendForce, mapulogalamu awiri apamwamba a zida zamphamvu za SiC ndi magalimoto amagetsi ndi mphamvu zowonjezera, zomwe zafika $ 1.09 biliyoni ndi $ 210 miliyoni motsatira mu 2022 (pakali pano pafupifupi RMB7.586 biliyoni). Imawerengera 67.4% ndi 13.1% ya msika wonse wamagetsi a SiC.
Malinga ndi TrendForce Consulting, msika wamagetsi a SiC ukuyembekezeka kufika $5.33 biliyoni pofika 2026 (panopa pafupifupi 37.097 biliyoni ya yuan). Ntchito zazikuluzikulu zimadalirabe magalimoto amagetsi ndi mphamvu zowonjezereka, ndi mtengo wotuluka wa magalimoto amagetsi kufika $ 3.98 biliyoni (panopa pafupifupi 27.701 biliyoni yuan), CAGR (chiwerengero cha kukula kwapachaka) pafupifupi 38%; Mphamvu zongowonjezedwanso zafika madola 410 miliyoni aku US (pafupifupi 2.854 biliyoni pakali pano), CAGR pafupifupi 19%.
Tesla sanalepheretse ogwira ntchito a SiC
Kukula kwa msika wa silicon carbide (SiC) pazaka zisanu zapitazi kwadalira Tesla, wopanga zida zoyambira kugwiritsa ntchito zida zamagetsi zamagalimoto amagetsi, komanso wogula wamkulu kwambiri masiku ano. Kotero pamene posachedwapa adalengeza kuti adapeza njira yochepetsera kuchuluka kwa SiC yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito m'ma modules amphamvu amtsogolo ndi 75 peresenti, malondawo adaponyedwa mu mantha, ndipo zolemba za osewera akuluakulu zinavutika.
Kudulidwa kwa 75 peresenti kumamveka koopsa, makamaka popanda nkhani zambiri, koma pali zochitika zingapo zomwe zingatheke kumbuyo kwa chilengezocho - palibe chomwe chimasonyeza kuchepa kwakukulu kwa kufunikira kwa zipangizo kapena msika wonse.
Chitsanzo 1: Zipangizo zochepa
The 48-chip inverter mu Tesla Model 3 imachokera ku teknoloji yatsopano kwambiri yomwe ilipo panthawi ya chitukuko (2017). Komabe, pamene SiC ecosystem ikukula, pali mwayi wowonjezera magwiridwe antchito a magawo a SiC kudzera pamapangidwe apamwamba kwambiri okhala ndi kuphatikiza kwakukulu. Ngakhale kuti sizingatheke kuti teknoloji imodzi ichepetse SiC ndi 75%, kupita patsogolo kosiyanasiyana pakuyika, kuziziritsa (ie, mbali ziwiri ndi zoziziritsa zamadzimadzi), ndi kamangidwe kake kachipangizo kamene kakhoza kupangitsa kuti pakhale zipangizo zowonjezereka, zogwira ntchito bwino. Tesla mosakayikira adzafufuza mwayi woterewu, ndipo chiwerengero cha 75% chikhoza kutanthauza mapangidwe ophatikizika kwambiri a inverter omwe amachepetsa chiwerengero cha kufa chomwe chimagwiritsa ntchito kuchokera ku 48 mpaka 12. Komabe, ngati ndi choncho, sizili zofanana kuchepetsa kwabwino kwa zinthu za SiC monga momwe zanenedwera.
Pakadali pano, ma Oems ena akuyambitsa magalimoto a 800V mu 2023-24 adalirabe SiC, yomwe ili yabwino kwambiri pamagetsi apamwamba komanso zida zovotera kwambiri pagawoli. Zotsatira zake, Oems sangawone kukhudzidwa kwakanthawi kochepa pakulowa kwa SiC.
Izi zikuwonetsa kusintha kwa msika wamagalimoto wa SiC kuchoka pazida zopangira kupita ku zida ndi kuphatikiza makina. Ma module amphamvu tsopano akugwira ntchito yofunikira pakuwongolera mtengo wonse ndi magwiridwe antchito, ndipo osewera akulu onse mu danga la SiC ali ndi mabizinesi amagetsi amphamvu omwe ali ndi mphamvu zawo zopakira mkati - kuphatikiza onsemi, STMicroelectronics ndi Infineon. Wolfspeed tsopano ikukula kupitilira zida zopangira zida.
Nkhani 2: Magalimoto ang'onoang'ono okhala ndi mphamvu zochepa
Tesla wakhala akugwira ntchito pagalimoto yatsopano yolowera kuti magalimoto ake azikhala osavuta kugwiritsa ntchito. Model 2 kapena Model Q idzakhala yotsika mtengo komanso yaying'ono kuposa magalimoto awo apano, ndipo magalimoto ang'onoang'ono okhala ndi zinthu zochepa sangafune zambiri za SiC kuti azigwiritsa ntchito mphamvu. Komabe, zitsanzo zake zomwe zilipo zitha kukhalabe ndi mapangidwe omwewo ndipo zimafunikirabe kuchuluka kwa SiC yonse.
Pazabwino zake zonse, SiC ndi zinthu zodula, ndipo ma Oem ambiri awonetsa kuti akufuna kuchepetsa ndalama. Tsopano kuti Tesla, OEM yaikulu kwambiri m'mlengalenga, wanenapo za mitengo, izi zikhoza kukakamiza ma IDM kuti achepetse ndalama. Kodi kulengeza kwa Tesla kungakhale njira yoyendetsera mayankho okwera mtengo? Zidzakhala zosangalatsa kuwona momwe makampani amachitira m'masabata/miyezi ikubwera…
Ma ID akugwiritsa ntchito njira zosiyanasiyana zochepetsera ndalama, monga kupezera gawo lapansi kuchokera kwa ogulitsa osiyanasiyana, kukulitsa kupanga powonjezera mphamvu ndikusintha ku zowotcha zazikulu (6 "ndi 8"). Kupanikizika kowonjezereka kumapangitsa kuti osewera azitha kuphunzira pagawo lililonse lazakudya m'derali. Kuonjezera apo, kukwera mtengo kungapangitse SiC kukhala yotsika mtengo osati kwa opanga ma automaker ena komanso mapulogalamu ena, omwe angapangitse kuti atengedwe.
Nkhani 3: Sinthani SIC ndi zida zina
Ofufuza a Yole Intelligence akuyang'anitsitsa matekinoloje ena omwe angapikisane ndi SiC pamagalimoto amagetsi. Mwachitsanzo, grooved SiC imapereka kachulukidwe kamphamvu kwambiri - kodi tidzayiwona m'malo mwa SiC mtsogolo?
Pofika chaka cha 2023, ma Si IGBT adzagwiritsidwa ntchito mu ma EV inverters ndipo ali bwino mkati mwamakampani malinga ndi kuchuluka kwake komanso mtengo wake. Opanga akuwongolerabe magwiridwe antchito, ndipo gawo lapansili litha kuwonetsa kuthekera kwachitsanzo chochepa champhamvu chomwe chimatchulidwa muzochitika ziwiri, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zosavuta kukulitsa mochulukira. Mwina SiC idzasungidwa kwa magalimoto apamwamba kwambiri a Tesla, amphamvu kwambiri.
GaN-on-Si ikuwonetsa kuthekera kwakukulu pamsika wamagalimoto, koma akatswiri amawona izi ngati kulingalira kwanthawi yayitali (zaka zopitilira 5 mu inverters m'dziko lachikhalidwe). Ngakhale kuti pakhala zokambirana pamakampani ozungulira GaN, kufunikira kwa Tesla pakuchepetsa mtengo komanso kukwera kwakukulu kumapangitsa kuti zikhale zokayikitsa kuti zitha kusamukira kuzinthu zatsopano komanso zocheperako kuposa SiC m'tsogolomu. Koma kodi Tesla angatengepo gawo lolimba mtima potengera zinthu zatsopanozi kaye? Ndi nthawi yokha yomwe idzafotokozere.
Kutumiza kwawafer kunakhudza pang'ono, koma pakhoza kukhala misika yatsopano
Ngakhale kukankhira kuphatikizika kwakukulu sikungakhudze kwambiri msika wa zida, kumatha kukhala ndi vuto pakutumiza kwawafer. Ngakhale sizodabwitsa monga momwe ambiri amaganizira poyamba, zochitika zilizonse zimaneneratu kuchepa kwa kufunikira kwa SiC, zomwe zingakhudze makampani a semiconductor.
Komabe, zitha kuwonjezera kupezeka kwazinthu kumisika ina yomwe yakula limodzi ndi msika wamagalimoto pazaka zisanu zapitazi. Auto ikuyembekeza kuti mafakitale onse azikula kwambiri m'zaka zikubwerazi - pafupifupi chifukwa chotsika mtengo komanso kuchuluka kwazinthu.
Kulengeza kwa Tesla kudadzetsa zododometsa pamsika, koma poganizira mozama, mawonekedwe a SiC amakhalabe abwino. Kodi Tesla amapita kuti - ndipo makampaniwo adzachita bwanji ndikusintha? Ndikoyenera kusamala.
Nthawi yotumiza: Mar-27-2023