Thaum Lub Ib Hlis 30, British Petroleum (BP) tau tshaj tawm 2023 "World Energy Outlook" tsab ntawv ceeb toom, hais tias fossil fuels nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj nyob rau hauv lub zog hloov, tab sis lub ntiaj teb no lub zog mov tsis txaus, carbon emissions mus ntxiv thiab lwm yam. xav tias yuav ua kom muaj kev hloov pauv ntsuab thiab cov pa roj carbon tsawg, daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau nthuav tawm plaub lub ntsiab lus ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb, thiab kwv yees qhov kev loj hlob qis hydrocarbon rau xyoo 2050.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tau hais tias nyob rau lub sijhawm luv luv, fossil fuels yuav ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv cov txheej txheem hloov hluav taws xob, tab sis lub ntiaj teb tsis muaj zog, kev nce ntxiv ntawm cov pa roj carbon emissions thiab nquag tshwm sim ntawm huab cua huab cua yuav ua rau lub ntiaj teb muaj zog ntsuab thiab qis. - kev hloov pauv carbon. Kev hloov pauv tau zoo yuav tsum tau ua kom muaj kev ruaj ntseg ntawm lub zog, kev pheej yig thiab kev ruaj ntseg; Lub ntiaj teb lub zog yav tom ntej yuav qhia txog plaub yam tseem ceeb: lub luag haujlwm poob ntawm hydrocarbon zog, kev loj hlob sai ntawm lub zog tauj dua tshiab, kev nce qib ntawm hluav taws xob, thiab kev loj hlob txuas ntxiv ntawm kev siv qis hydrocarbon.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm xav tias kev hloov pauv ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob mus txog xyoo 2050 nyob rau hauv peb qhov xwm txheej: kev hloov pauv nrawm, net xoom thiab lub zog tshiab. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias nyob rau hauv qhov kev hloov pauv nrawm, cov pa roj carbon emissions yuav raug txo los ntawm 75%; Hauv qhov xwm txheej net-zero, carbon emissions yuav raug txo los ntawm ntau dua 95; Raws li qhov tshiab dynamic scenario (uas xav tias tag nrho cov teeb meem ntawm lub ntiaj teb no zog kev loj hlob nyob rau hauv tsib lub xyoos dhau los, nrog rau kev vam meej technology, txo nqi, thiab lwm yam., thiab lub ntiaj teb no txoj cai siv zog yuav nyob twj ywm unchanged nyob rau hauv lub tom ntej no tsib mus rau 30 xyoo), carbon ntiaj teb no emissions yuav nce siab hauv xyoo 2020 thiab txo cov pa roj carbon emissions thoob ntiaj teb li ntawm 30% los ntawm 2050 piv nrog rau xyoo 2019.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm sib cav hais tias cov hydrocarbons tsawg ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev hloov pauv ntawm cov pa roj carbon tsawg, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog hauv kev lag luam, kev thauj mus los thiab lwm yam haujlwm uas nyuaj rau hluav taws xob. Ntsuab hydrogen thiab xiav hydrogen yog lub ntsiab tsis tshua muaj hydrocarbon, thiab qhov tseem ceeb ntawm ntsuab hydrogen yuav raug txhim kho nrog cov txheej txheem ntawm lub zog hloov. Kev lag luam hydrogen suav nrog kev lag luam hauv cheeb tsam rau kev thauj cov hydrogen ntshiab thiab kev lag luam marine rau hydrogen derivatives.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kwv yees tias los ntawm 2030, nyob rau hauv kev hloov pauv nrawm thiab qhov xwm txheej xoom xoom, qhov kev thov qis hydrocarbon yuav ncav cuag 30 lab tons / xyoo thiab 50 lab tons / xyoo, raws li, feem ntau ntawm cov hydrocarbons tsawg no tau siv los ua lub zog thiab cov neeg ua haujlwm txo qis. los hloov cov pa roj carbon monoxide, thee-based hydrogen (siv los ua cov khoom siv raw rau kev ua kom zoo, tsim cov ammonia thiab methanol) thiab thee. Cov seem yuav raug siv rau hauv cov tshuaj thiab cov cement ntau lawm.
Los ntawm 2050, steel ntau lawm yuav siv li ntawm 40% ntawm tag nrho cov uas tsis muaj hydrocarbon xav tau nyob rau hauv lub lag luam sector, thiab nyob rau hauv lub nrawm hloov thiab net zero scenarios, tsawg hydrocarbons yuav suav txog li 5% thiab 10% ntawm tag nrho cov kev siv zog, raws li.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kuj tau kwv yees tias, nyob rau hauv kev hloov pauv nrawm thiab qhov xwm txheej zero, hydrogen derivatives yuav suav txog 10 feem pua thiab 30 feem pua ntawm aviation zog xav tau thiab 30 feem pua thiab 55 feem pua ntawm Marine zog xav tau, feem, los ntawm 2050, nrog rau feem ntau ntawm cov so mus rau kev thauj mus los hnyav; Los ntawm 2050, qhov sib npaug ntawm cov hydrocarbons tsawg thiab hydrogen derivatives yuav suav txog 10% thiab 20% ntawm tag nrho cov kev siv hluav taws xob hauv kev thauj mus los, raws li, raws li kev hloov pauv sai thiab net zero scenarios.
Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm xiav hydrogen feem ntau qis dua li ntawm ntsuab hydrogen nyob rau hauv feem ntau ntawm lub ntiaj teb no, tab sis tus nqi sib txawv yuav maj mam nqaim raws li ntsuab hydrogen manufacturing technology nce, efficiency ntau lawm thiab tus nqi ntawm cov tsoos fossil fuels nce, daim ntawv qhia. hais. Raws li kev hloov pauv nrawm thiab qhov xwm txheej-zero, daim ntawv tshaj tawm kwv yees tias cov hydrogen ntsuab yuav suav txog li 60 feem pua ntawm tag nrho cov hydrocarbon tsawg tsawg los ntawm 2030, nce mus rau 65 feem pua los ntawm 2050.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kuj qhia tias txoj kev ua lag luam hydrogen yuav txawv nyob ntawm qhov kawg siv. Rau cov ntawv thov uas xav tau cov dej ntshiab ntshiab (xws li cov txheej txheem cua kub cua sov lossis kev thauj mus los), qhov kev thov tuaj yeem raug xa tawm los ntawm cov chaw cuam tshuam los ntawm cov kav dej; Rau cov cheeb tsam uas xav tau hydrogen derivatives (xws li ammonia thiab methanol rau cov nkoj), tus nqi ntawm kev thauj mus los ntawm hydrogen derivatives kuj tsawg thiab qhov kev thov tuaj yeem tuaj yeem los ntawm cov nqi zoo tshaj plaws thoob ntiaj teb.
Hauv European Union, piv txwv li, tsab ntawv tshaj tawm kwv yees tias nyob rau hauv kev hloov pauv nrawm thiab qhov xwm txheej-zero, EU yuav tsim txog 70% ntawm nws cov hydrocarbons tsawg los ntawm 2030, poob mus rau 60% los ntawm 2050. Ntawm qhov tsawg hydrocarbon imports, hais txog. 50 feem pua ntawm cov hydrogen ntshiab yuav raug xa tawm los ntawm cov kav dej los ntawm North Africa thiab lwm lub tebchaws nyob sab Europe (xws li Norway, UK), thiab lwm yam 50 ib. cent yuav raug xa los ntawm hiav txwv los ntawm lub ntiaj teb ua lag luam nyob rau hauv daim ntawv ntawm hydrogen derivatives.
Post lub sij hawm: Feb-06-2023