Carbon neutralization yuav tsum tsav graphite electrode lag luam hauv qab rebound

1. txoj kev loj hlob ntawm steel kev lag luam tsav kev loj hlob ntawm lub ntiaj teb no thov rau graphite electrodes

1.1 Kev taw qhia luv luv ntawm graphite electrode

Graphite electrodeyog ib hom graphite conductive khoom uas yog resistant rau kub kub. Nws yog ib hom kub resistant graphite conductive khoom, uas yog tsim los ntawm calcining raw cov ntaub ntawv, crushing sib tsoo hmoov, batching, sib tov, sib sau, ci, impregnating, graphitization thiab txhua yam ua, uas yog hu ua dag graphite electrode (graphite electrode) rau Qhov txawv ntawm kev siv saum ntuj ceeb tsheej Txawm li cas los xij, graphite yog lub ntuj graphite electrode npaj los ntawm cov khoom siv raw. Graphite electrodes tuaj yeem ua tau tam sim no thiab tsim hluav taws xob, yog li melting seem hlau lossis lwm yam khoom siv raw hauv qhov cub tawg los tsim cov hlau thiab lwm yam khoom siv hlau, feem ntau yog siv hauv steel ntau lawm. Graphite electrode yog ib yam khoom uas tsis tshua muaj kev tiv thaiv thiab ua rau thermal gradient nyob rau hauv arc rauv. Cov yam ntxwv tseem ceeb ntawm graphite electrode ntau lawm yog lub voj voog ntau lawm (feem ntau kav ntev li peb mus rau tsib lub hlis), kev siv hluav taws xob loj thiab cov txheej txheem ntau lawm.

Cov khoom siv raw ntawm cov graphite electrode kev lag luam saw hlau feem ntau yog roj av coke thiab rab koob coke, thiab cov khoom siv raw khoom suav nrog ntau tus nqi ntawm cov graphite electrode, suav txog ntau dua 65%, vim tias tseem muaj qhov sib txawv loj ntawm Tuam Tshoj tus koob coke ntau lawm tshuab thiab thev naus laus zis piv nrog Tebchaws Meskas thiab Nyij Pooj, qhov zoo ntawm cov koob coke hauv tsev yog qhov nyuaj rau lav, yog li Tuam Tshoj tseem muaj kev vam khom siab rau cov koob zoo coke ntshuam. Nyob rau hauv 2018, tag nrho cov khoom ntawm koob coke ua lag luam nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj yog 418000 tons, thiab ntshuam ntawm koob coke nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj mus txog 218000 tons, accounting rau ntau tshaj 50%; Lub ntsiab downstream daim ntawv thov ntawm graphite electrode yog Electric arc rauv steelmaking.

Kev faib tawm ntau ntawm graphite electrode yog nyob ntawm lub cev thiab tshuaj lom neeg ntawm cov khoom tiav. Raws li cov qauv kev faib tawm no, graphite electrode tuaj yeem muab faib ua lub zog zoo tib yam graphite electrode, siab zog graphite electrode thiab ultra-siab zog graphite electrode. Cov graphite electrodes nrog lub zog sib txawv yog txawv hauv cov khoom siv raw, electrode resistivity, elastic modulus, flexural zog, coefficient ntawm thermal expansion, tso cai tam sim no ceev thiab daim ntawv thov teb.

1.2. Kev tshuaj xyuas txog kev txhim kho keeb kwm ntawm graphite electrode hauv Suav teb

Graphite electrode feem ntau yog siv hauv hlau thiab hlau smelting. Txoj kev loj hlob ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam graphite electrode yog ib txwm ua raws li cov txheej txheem niaj hnub ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam hlau thiab hlau. Graphite electrode nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj pib nyob rau hauv 1950s, thiab tau ntsib peb theem txij li thaum nws yug los

Kev lag luam graphite electrode yuav tsum thim rov qab rau xyoo 2021. Nyob rau thawj ib nrab ntawm 2020, cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov xwm txheej, kev thov hauv tsev tau poob qis, kev txiav txim txawv teb chaws qeeb, thiab ntau qhov chaw ntawm cov khoom cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam hauv tsev. Thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2020, tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode tau nce rau lub sijhawm luv luv, tab sis tsis ntev, tus nqi ua tsov rog hnyav zuj zus. Nws cia siab tias nrog kev rov qab los ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws thiab kev loj hlob ntawm hluav taws xob rauv hluav taws xob smelting raws li txoj cai ntawm cov pa roj carbon nruab nrab, kev lag luam graphite electrode yuav tsum thim rov qab. Txij li thaum xyoo 2020, nrog rau tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode poob thiab nyhav kom ruaj khov, qhov kev thov hauv tsev rau graphite electrode rau EAF steelmaking yog nce zuj zus, thiab cov khoom ntim ntawm ultra-siab zog graphite electrode yog maj mam nce, kev lag luam concentration ntawm Tuam Tshoj graphite. electrode kev lag luam yuav tsis tu ncua, thiab kev lag luam yuav maj mam mature.

2. cov khoom thiab kev thov qauv ntawm graphite electrode yuav tsum thim rov qab

2.1. lub ntiaj teb no tus nqi hloov pauv ntawm graphite electrode kuj loj

Los ntawm 2014 mus rau 2016, vim tsis muaj zog ntawm downstream thov, lub ntiaj teb no graphite electrode lag luam poob, thiab tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode tseem qis. Raws li lub ntsiab raw khoom ntawm graphite electrode, koob coke nqi poob rau $562.2 ib tuj nyob rau hauv 2016. Raws li Tuam Tshoj yog ib tug net importer ntawm koob coke, Tuam Tshoj qhov kev thov muaj kev cuam tshuam zoo rau tus nqi ntawm koob coke sab nraum Suav teb. Nrog cov graphite electrode manufacturers 'muaj peev xwm poob qis dua tus nqi tsim khoom hauv xyoo 2016, cov khoom lag luam sib raug zoo mus txog qhov qis. Xyoo 2017, txoj cai xaus tau tso tseg qhov nruab nrab zaus qhov cub ntawm Di Tiao steel, thiab cov khoom siv hlau loj tau ntws mus rau hauv lub cub tawg ntawm cov nroj tsuag steel, uas ua rau muaj kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev thov rau graphite electrode kev lag luam hauv Suav teb hauv ib nrab xyoo. 2017. Qhov kev thov nce rau graphite electrode ua rau lub koob coke tus nqi nce siab hauv 2017, thiab mus txog US $ 3769.9 Ib tuj hauv 2019, nce 5.7 npaug piv nrog xyoo 2016.

Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, sab hauv txoj cai lij choj tau txhawb nqa thiab taw qhia cov txheej txheem luv luv ntawm EAF hloov pauv steel, uas tau txhawb nqa qhov kev thov rau graphite electrode hauv Suav teb kev lag luam steel. Txij li thaum 2017, lub ntiaj teb no EAF steel kev lag luam tau zoo, ua rau lub ntiaj teb no tsis txaus graphite electrode mov. Kev thov rau graphite electrodes sab nraum Tuam Tshoj tau nce siab hauv 2017 thiab tus nqi mus txog nws qib siab tshaj plaws. Txij thaum ntawd los, vim kev nqis peev ntau dhau, kev tsim khoom thiab kev yuav khoom, kev lag luam muaj ntau cov khoom lag luam, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm graphite electrode tau poob rau xyoo 2019. Xyoo 2019, tus nqi ntawm uhhp graphite electrode tau ruaj khov ntawm US $ 8824.0 ib tuj, tab sis nws tseem siab dua tus nqi keeb kwm ua ntej 2016.

Hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo 2020, COVID-19 ua rau muaj kev poob qis ntxiv rau qhov nruab nrab muag ntawm graphite electrodes, thiab tus nqi koob coke hauv tsev tau nqis los ntawm 8000 yuan / ton mus rau 4500 yuan / ton thaum kawg ntawm Lub Yim Hli, lossis 43.75% . Tus nqi ntau lawm ntawm koob coke hauv Suav teb yog 5000-6000 yuan / tuj, thiab cov tuam txhab feem ntau yog qis dua qhov sib npaug ntawm cov nyiaj tau los thiab poob. Nrog rau kev lag luam rov qab los, kev tsim khoom thiab kev lag luam ntawm graphite electrodes hauv Suav teb tau txhim kho txij li lub Yim Hli, qhov pib ntawm hluav taws xob rauv hlau tau tuav ntawm 65%, kev txaus siab ntawm cov nroj tsuag steel los yuav graphite electrodes tau nce, thiab cov npe ntawm cov lus nug. rau kev lag luam export tau maj mam nce. Tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode kuj tau nce txij li lub Cuaj Hlis 2020. Tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode feem ntau tau nce los ntawm 500-1500 yuan / ton, thiab cov nqi xa tawm tau nce ntau.

Txij li xyoo 2021, cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov xwm txheej kis mob hauv xeev Hebei, feem ntau cov graphite electrode cov nroj tsuag tau raug kaw thiab cov tsheb thauj mus los tau raug tswj nruj, thiab cov graphite electrodes hauv zos tsis tuaj yeem ua lag luam ib txwm. Tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob zoo tib yam thiab lub zog siab hauv kev lag luam graphite electrode yog nce. Tus nqi tseem ceeb ntawm uhp450mm specification nrog 30% koob coke cov ntsiab lus nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam yog 15-15500 yuan / tuj, thiab cov nqi tseem ceeb ntawm uhp600mm specification yog 185-19500 yuan / tuj, nce ntawm 500-2000 yuan / ton. Kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw kuj txhawb nqa tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode. Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm koob coke nyob rau hauv domestic thee series yog hais txog 7000 yuan, roj series yog hais txog 7800, thiab ntshuam nqi yog hais txog 1500 US dollars. Raws li Bachuan cov ntaub ntawv, qee cov tuam txhab lag luam tseem ceeb tau xaj cov khoom muag hauv Lub Ob Hlis. Vim yog lub hauv paus kev saib xyuas ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom tseem ceeb hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis, nws xav tias 2021 graphite electrode tseem yuav muaj chaw ntxiv rau thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog kev nce nqi, qhov kev thov kawg ntawm cov hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hauv hluav taws xob smelting yuav tsis muaj zog, thiab tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yuav tsum nyob ruaj khov.

2.2. qhov chaw loj hlob ntawm domestic high quality thiab ultra siab zog graphite electrode yog loj

Cov zis ntawm graphite electrodes nyob txawv teb chaws raug txo, thiab lub peev xwm ntau lawm yog ultrahigh zog graphite electrodes. Los ntawm 2014 mus rau 2019, lub ntiaj teb no graphite electrode ntau lawm (tshwj tsis yog Tuam Tshoj) tau poob los ntawm 800000 tons mus rau 710000 tons, nrog ib tug composite txhua xyoo kev loj hlob tus nqi ntawm - 2.4%. Vim lub demolition ntawm cov nroj tsuag muaj peev xwm tsawg, lub sij hawm ntev ib puag ncig rectification thiab reconstruction, lub peev xwm thiab cov zis tawm sab nraud Tuam Tshoj txuas ntxiv txo, thiab qhov sib txawv ntawm cov zis thiab noj yog sau los ntawm graphite electrodes exported los ntawm Tuam Tshoj. Los ntawm cov qauv khoom, cov zis ntawm ultra-siab zog graphite electrodes txawv teb chaws suav txog li 90% ntawm tag nrho cov zis ntawm tag nrho cov graphite electrodes (tshwj tsis yog Tuam Tshoj). High quality thiab ultra-siab zog graphite electrode yog tsuas yog siv nyob rau hauv zus tau tej cov stainless hlau thiab tshwj xeeb hlau. Cov chaw tsim khoom yuav tsum muaj qhov ntsuas lub cev thiab tshuaj lom neeg zoo xws li qhov ntom ntom, tiv taus thiab cov hmoov tshauv ntawm cov electrodes.

Cov zis ntawm graphite electrode nyob rau hauv Suav teb tau nce mus ntxiv, thiab kev tsim muaj peev xwm ntawm cov khoom zoo thiab ultra siab zog graphite electrode yog txwv. Cov zis ntawm graphite electrode hauv Suav teb poob los ntawm 570000 tons hauv 2014 txog 500000 tons hauv 2016. Tuam Tshoj cov zis tau rebounded txij thaum 2017 thiab mus txog 800000 tons hauv 2019. Piv nrog rau lub ntiaj teb no graphite electrode kev lag luam, domestic manufacturers muaj kuj tsawg-theem ultra -power graphite electrode manufacturing peev, tab sis rau high-zoo thiab ultra-high-power graphite, lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv tsev yog tsawg heev. Nyob rau hauv 2019, Tuam Tshoj tus high-zoo ultra-high-power graphite electrode tso zis tsuas yog 86000 tons, accounting rau txog 10% ntawm tag nrho cov zis, uas yog ho txawv los ntawm cov qauv ntawm txawv teb chaws graphite electrode khoom.

Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev xav tau, kev noj cov graphite electrodes hauv ntiaj teb (tshwj tsis yog Tuam Tshoj) hauv 2014-2019 yog ib txwm ntau dua li cov zis, thiab tom qab xyoo 2017, kev noj tau nce xyoo. Xyoo 2019, kev noj cov graphite electrodes hauv ntiaj teb (tshwj tsis yog Tuam Tshoj) yog 890000 tons. Los ntawm 2014 mus rau 2015, kev noj ntawm graphite electrodes nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj txo los ntawm 390000 tons mus rau 360000 tons, thiab cov zis ntawm high-zoo thiab ultra-high-power graphite electrodes poob los ntawm 23800 tons rau 20300 tons. Los ntawm 2016 txog 2017, vim kev maj mam rov qab los ntawm kev lag luam steel hauv Suav teb, qhov feem ntawm EAF steelmaking yog nce. Lub caij no, tus naj npawb ntawm high-end EAFs siv los ntawm steel manufacturers nce. Qhov kev thov rau high-zoo ultra-high-power graphite electrodes tau nce mus rau 580000 tons nyob rau hauv 2019, ntawm uas, qhov kev thov rau high-zoo ultra-high-power graphite electrodes nce mus txog 66300 tons, thiab CAGR nyob rau hauv 2017-2019 nce mus txog 68%. . Graphite electrode (tshwj xeeb tshaj yog lub zog siab graphite electrode) yuav tsum ua kom tau raws li qhov kev thov resonance uas tau tsav los ntawm kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig thiab txwv kev tsim khoom ntawm cov khoom siv kawg thiab cov permeability ntawm lub cub tawg ntawm qhov kev thov kawg.

3. kev loj hlob ntawm cov txheej txheem luv luv smelting drives kev loj hlob ntawm graphite electrode

3.1. thov kom tshiab hluav taws xob rauv tsav graphite electrode

Kev lag luam hlau yog ib qho ntawm cov kev lag luam hauv kev lag luam ntawm kev sib raug zoo thiab kev vam meej. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tsis ntev los no, lub ntiaj teb no crude steel ntau lawm tuav ib tug ruaj khov kev loj hlob. Hlau yog dav siv nyob rau hauv tsheb, kev tsim kho, ntim khoom thiab kev tsheb nqaj hlau kev lag luam, thiab lub ntiaj teb no noj steel kuj nce tsis tu ncua. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov zoo ntawm cov khoom steel tau raug txhim kho thiab kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig tau nce ntxiv. Qee lub tuam txhab steel tig mus rau arc rauv hlau tsim, thaum graphite electrode tseem ceeb heev rau lub qhov cub arc, yog li txhim kho cov kev cai zoo ntawm graphite electrode. Hlau thiab hlau smelting yog lub ntsiab daim ntawv thov teb ntawm graphite electrode, accounting txog li 80% ntawm tag nrho cov noj ntawm graphite electrode. Nyob rau hauv cov hlau thiab hlau smelting, hluav taws xob rauv steelmaking suav txog li 50% ntawm tag nrho cov kev siv ntawm graphite electrode, thiab refining sab nraum qhov cub account rau ntau tshaj 25% ntawm tag nrho cov kev siv ntawm graphite electrode. Hauv lub ntiaj teb, xyoo 2015, qhov feem pua ​​​​ntawm tag nrho cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm cov hlau tsis huv hauv ntiaj teb yog 25.2%, 62.7%, 39.4% thiab 22.9% raws li Tebchaws Meskas, 27 lub tebchaws ntawm European Union thiab Nyij Pooj, thaum xyoo 2015. Tuam Tshoj cov hluav taws xob cub hluav taws xob crude steel ntau lawm suav txog 5.9%, uas yog qis dua lub ntiaj teb qib. Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ntev, cov txheej txheem luv luv muaj qhov zoo ntawm cov txheej txheem ntev. Kev lag luam steel tshwj xeeb nrog EAF ua cov cuab yeej tsim khoom tseem ceeb yuav tsum tsim kho sai. Cov khoom seem ntawm cov khoom siv raw ntawm EAF steel yuav muaj qhov chaw loj hlob yav tom ntej. Yog li ntawd, EAF steelmaking yuav tsum tau loj hlob sai, yog li boosting qhov kev thov ntawm graphite electrode. Los ntawm kev pom, EAF yog cov cuab yeej tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua haujlwm luv luv steelmaking. Cov txheej txheem luv luv steelmaking thev naus laus zis muaj txiaj ntsig zoo hauv kev tsim khoom, kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig, kev tsim peev txheej peev thiab cov txheej txheem yooj; los ntawm cov dej ntws qis, txog 70% ntawm cov hlau tshwj xeeb thiab 100% ntawm cov hlau alloy siab hauv Suav teb yog tsim los ntawm arc rauv. Xyoo 2016, cov khoom tsim tshwj xeeb steel hauv Suav teb tsuas yog 1/5 ntawm Nyiv, thiab cov khoom siv high-end tshwj xeeb steel tsuas yog tsim nyob rau hauv Nyiv Qhov feem ntawm tag nrho tsuas yog 1/8 ntawm Nyiv. Kev txhim kho yav tom ntej ntawm high-end steel tshwj xeeb hauv Suav teb yuav tsav txoj kev loj hlob ntawm graphite electrode rau hluav taws xob cua sov steel thiab hluav taws xob rauv; Yog li ntawd, kev khaws cia ntawm cov peev txheej steel thiab cov khoom seem hauv Suav teb muaj qhov chaw loj hlob, thiab cov peev txheej ntawm cov khoom siv hlau ua rau lub sijhawm luv luv rau yav tom ntej yog muaj zog.

Cov zis ntawm graphite electrode yog raws li kev hloov pauv ntawm cov zis ntawm hluav taws xob rauv hlau. Qhov nce ntawm cov zis ntawm lub cub tawg steel yuav tsav qhov kev thov ntawm graphite electrode yav tom ntej. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm lub ntiaj teb hlau thiab hlau Association thiab Tuam Tshoj Carbon Industry Association, cov zis ntawm hluav taws xob rauv hlau nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj nyob rau hauv 2019 yog 127.4 lab tons, thiab cov zis ntawm graphite electrode yog 7421000 tons. Cov zis thiab kev loj hlob ntawm graphite electrode nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj yog ze ze rau cov zis thiab kev loj hlob ntawm hluav taws xob rauv hlau nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj. Los ntawm kev tsim cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev pom, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hauv xyoo 2011 tau nce mus txog nws qhov siab tshaj plaws, tom qab ntawd nws tau poob qis ib xyoos ib zaug, thiab cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm graphite electrode nyob rau hauv Suav teb kuj shrank xyoo los ntawm xyoo tom qab 2011. Nyob rau hauv 2016, Ministry ntawm kev lag luam thiab cov ntaub ntawv. technology nkag mus txog 205 hluav taws xob furnaces ntawm steel-ua lag luam, nrog ib tug ntau lawm ntawm 45 lab tons, accounting rau 6.72% ntawm lub teb chaws. crude steel ntau lawm nyob rau hauv lub xyoo tam sim no. Hauv xyoo 2017, 127 tus tshiab tau ntxiv, nrog rau kev tsim khoom ntawm 75million tons, suav txog 9.32% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom siv roj av hauv tib lub xyoo; nyob rau hauv 2018, 34 tus tshiab tau ntxiv, nrog rau kev tsim khoom ntawm 100 lab tons, suav txog 11% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom tsim tawm hauv lub xyoo tam sim no; Nyob rau hauv 2019, cov hluav taws xob furnaces nrog tsawg tshaj li 50t raug tshem tawm, thiab cov tshiab tsim thiab nyob rau hauv zus tau tej cov hluav taws xob furnaces nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj yog ntau tshaj li 355, accounting rau ib feem ntawm nws mus txog 12.8%. Qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm hluav taws xob rauv steelmaking hauv Suav teb tseem qis dua qhov nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiaj teb, tab sis qhov sib txawv pib nqaim maj mam. Los ntawm kev loj hlob tus nqi, qhov tso zis ntawm graphite electrode qhia tau hais tias muaj kev hloov pauv thiab poob. Hauv xyoo 2015, kev poob qis ntawm cov hlau tsim hluav taws xob hluav taws xob tsis muaj zog, thiab cov zis ntawm graphite electrode txo qis. Qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov khoom siv hlau nyob rau yav tom ntej yuav loj dua, uas yuav ua rau lub neej tom ntej xav tau qhov chaw ntawm graphite electrode rau hluav taws xob rauv taws.

Raws li kev hloov kho txoj cai ntawm steel kev lag luam tawm los ntawm Ministry ntawm kev lag luam thiab cov ntaub ntawv technology, nws yog kom meej meej pom zoo hais tias "txhawb txhawb cov txheej txheem luv luv steelmaking txheej txheem thiab cov khoom siv nrog cov khoom siv raw khoom. Los ntawm 2025, qhov piv ntawm steel ua seem ntawm Tuam Tshoj steel tuam txhab yuav tsum tsis txhob tsawg tshaj li 30%. Nrog rau txoj kev loj hlob ntawm 14th tsib xyoo txoj kev npaj nyob rau hauv ntau yam teb, nws yuav tsum tau hais tias qhov feem ntawm cov txheej txheem luv luv yuav ntxiv txhim kho qhov kev thov ntawm graphite electrode, cov khoom tseem ceeb nyob rau hauv upstream.

Tsuas yog Tuam Tshoj, lub teb chaws tsim cov hlau loj hauv ntiaj teb, xws li Tebchaws Meskas, Nyiv thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb, feem ntau yog hluav taws xob rauv hlau ua, uas yuav tsum muaj ntau dua graphite electrodes, thaum Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm graphite electrode muaj ntau dua 50% ntawm lub ntiaj teb. muaj peev xwm, uas ua rau Tuam Tshoj ib tug net exporter ntawm graphite electrodes. Nyob rau hauv 2018, Tuam Tshoj tus graphite electrode export ntim tau mus txog 287000 tons, nce 21.11% xyoo-rau-xyoo, tswj cov kev loj hlob, thiab ib tug tseem ceeb nce rau peb lub xyoos sib law liag. Nws cia siab tias qhov ntim ntawm graphite electrode xa tawm hauv Suav teb yuav nce mus rau 398000 tons los ntawm 2023, nrog rau kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 5.5%. Ua tsaug rau kev txhim kho qib kev lag luam, Tuam Tshoj graphite electrode cov khoom lag luam tau maj mam lees paub thiab lees txais los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom txawv teb chaws, thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev muag khoom txawv teb chaws ntawm Suav graphite electrode tuam txhab tau nce ntau. Ua tus thawj coj graphite electrode kev lag luam hauv Suav teb ua piv txwv, nrog rau kev txhim kho tag nrho ntawm graphite electrode kev lag luam, vim nws cov khoom lag luam muaj zog sib tw, Fangda carbon tau nce ntau cov nyiaj tau los txawv teb chaws ntawm graphite electrode kev lag luam hauv ob xyoos tsis ntev los no. Kev muag khoom txawv teb chaws tau nce los ntawm 430million yuan nyob rau lub sijhawm qis ntawm graphite electrode kev lag luam hauv xyoo 2016 txog rau xyoo 2018, cov nyiaj tau los txawv teb chaws ntawm graphite electrode lag luam suav txog ntau dua 30% ntawm tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ntawm lub tuam txhab, thiab kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tau nce ntxiv. . Nrog rau kev txhim kho tas mus li ntawm cov txheej txheem thiab cov khoom sib tw ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam graphite electrode, Tuam Tshoj graphite electrode yuav raug lees paub thiab ntseeg los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom txawv teb chaws. Kev xa tawm ntim ntawm graphite electrode yuav tsum nce ntxiv, uas yuav dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb los txhawb kev zom zaub mov ntawm graphite electrode hauv Suav teb.

3.2. kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig txoj cai ntawm kev kis mob ua rau cov khoom ntawm graphite electrode yuav nruj

Cov pa roj carbon emission ntawm cov txheej txheem ntev ntawm cov txheej txheem luv luv steelmaking hauv hluav taws xob rauv yog txo. Raws li 13th tsib xyoos txoj kev npaj ntawm kev lag luam khib nyiab steel, piv nrog cov hlau ore steel ua, emissions ntawm 1.6 tons ntawm carbon dioxide thiab 3 tons ntawm cov khib nyiab yuav raug txo los ntawm kev siv 1 tuj ntawm khib nyiab steel hlau ua. Cov txheej txheem ua haujlwm tau koom nrog hauv kev lag luam hlau thiab hlau. Txhua tus txheej txheem yuav dhau los ntawm kev hloov tshuaj lom neeg thiab lub cev. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, ntau yam khoom seem thiab cov khoom pov tseg yuav raug tso tawm thaum cov khoom xav tau raug tsim. Los ntawm kev suav, peb tuaj yeem pom tias thaum tib qhov kev tsim khoom ntawm 1 tuj slab / billet, cov txheej txheem ntev uas muaj cov txheej txheem sintering yuav tso tawm ntau cov pa phem, uas yog qhov thib ob hauv cov txheej txheem ntev ntawm cov txheej txheem pellet, thaum cov pa paug tawm los ntawm lub sij hawm luv luv steelmaking. yog qhov qis dua cov txheej txheem ntev nrog cov txheej txheem sintering thiab cov txheej txheem ntev uas muaj pellet, uas qhia tau hais tias cov txheej txheem luv luv steelmaking yog tus phooj ywg zoo rau ib puag ncig. Txhawm rau kom yeej kev sib ntaus sib tua ntawm xiav ntuj tiv thaiv, ntau lub xeev hauv Suav teb tau tshaj tawm cov ntawv ceeb toom ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws staggering ntau lawm nyob rau lub caij ntuj no thiab caij nplooj ntoos hlav, thiab ua staggered ntau lawm kev npaj rau cov roj tseem ceeb cov lag luam xws li steel, nonferrous, coking, tshuaj lom neeg kev lag luam, lub tsev. cov ntaub ntawv thiab casting. Ntawm lawv, yog tias kev siv hluav taws xob, kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig thiab kev nyab xeeb ntawm carbon thiab ferroalloy cov lag luam uas graphite electrode tsis ua raws li cov kev cai, qee lub xeev tau hais meej meej tias kev txwv ntau lawm lossis kev tsim khoom yuav tsum tau ua raws li qhov xwm txheej tiag tiag.

3.3. cov khoom thiab kev thov qauv ntawm graphite electrode yog maj mam hloov

Novel coronavirus mob ntsws tshwm sim los ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb qeeb thiab qee qhov kev tiv thaiv kev cuam tshuam hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo 2020, ua rau graphite electrode ob qho tib si hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws xav tau thiab cov nqi muag khoom poob qis, thiab cov lag luam graphite electrode hauv kev lag luam txo qis kev tsim khoom, nres ntau lawm thiab ua poob. Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv thiab nruab nrab, ntxiv rau qhov kev cia siab ntawm Tuam Tshoj los txhim kho qhov kev thov rau graphite electrode, lub peev xwm ntawm cov graphite electrode txawv teb chaws yuav raug txwv nyob rau hauv kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib kis, uas yuav ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov ntxiv rau cov khoom siv nruj ntawm graphite. electrode.

Txij li thaum lub quarter thib plaub ntawm xyoo 2020, cov khoom lag luam graphite electrode tau poob qis tsis tu ncua, thiab kev lag luam pib tus nqi tau nce. Txij li thaum xyoo 2019, tag nrho cov khoom siv ntawm graphite electrode hauv Suav teb tau dhau los, thiab cov tuam txhab graphite electrode kuj tseem tswj tau qhov pib ua haujlwm zoo. Txawm hais tias kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb poob qis hauv 2020, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov tuam txhab hlau txawv teb chaws cuam tshuam los ntawm COVID-19 feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv kev khiav, tab sis Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv hlau tsis zoo tseem nyob ruaj khov. Txawm li cas los xij, tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode kev lag luam cuam tshuam los ntawm kev lag luam khoom lag luam ntau dua, thiab tus nqi pheej yig dua, thiab cov lag luam graphite electrode tau raug kev puas tsuaj loj. Qee qhov loj graphite electrode tuam txhab lag luam hauv Suav teb tau siv cov khoom muag hauv lub Plaub Hlis thiab Tsib Hlis 2020. Tam sim no, cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau ntawm super siab thiab kev lag luam loj nyob ze rau cov khoom siv thiab qhov xav tau sib npaug. Txawm hais tias qhov kev thov tseem tsis hloov pauv, hnub ntawm cov khoom siv hnyav thiab kev thov yuav tuaj sai sai.

Kev loj hlob sai ntawm cov khoom siv khib nyiab txhawb kev thov. Kev siv cov khoom seem hlau tau nce los ntawm 88.29 lab tons hauv 2014 txog 18781 lab tons hauv 2018, thiab CAGR tau nce mus txog 20.8%. Nrog rau kev qhib lub teb chaws txoj cai ntawm cov khoom seem steel ntshuam thiab nce qhov feem ntawm hluav taws xob rauv smelting, nws xav tias kev noj cov khoom seem yuav nce sai. Ntawm qhov tod tes, vim tias tus nqi ntawm cov seem hlau feem ntau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev thov txawv teb chaws, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom seem txawv teb chaws tau nce siab nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo 2020 vim qhov cuam tshuam ntawm Tuam Tshoj pib xa cov khoom seem. Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom seem yog nyob rau theem siab, thiab nws tau pib hu rov qab txij li xyoo 2021. Qhov kev xav tau tsawg zuj zus los ntawm kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov xwm txheej txawv teb chaws yuav tsum txuas ntxiv cuam tshuam rau kev poob ntawm cov khoom seem. Nws cia siab tias tus nqi ntawm cov seem hlau yuav txuas ntxiv cuam tshuam rau thawj ib nrab ntawm 2021 Lub lattice yuav yog oscillating thiab downward, uas kuj yog qhov zoo rau kev txhim kho ntawm lub cub tawg pib tus nqi thiab qhov kev thov ntawm graphite electrode.

Tag nrho cov kev xav tau ntawm lub ntiaj teb hluav taws xob rauv hlau thiab cov hlau tsis muaj cua sov hauv 2019 thiab 2020 yog 1376800 tons thiab 14723 lab tons raws li. Nws tau kwv yees tias lub ntiaj teb tag nrho cov kev xav tau yuav nce ntxiv nyob rau tsib xyoos tom ntej, thiab ncav cuag 2.1444 lab tons hauv 2025. Qhov kev thov rau hluav taws xob cua sov steel suav rau feem ntau ntawm tag nrho. Nws kwv yees tias qhov kev thov yuav ncav cuag 1.8995 lab tons hauv 2025.

Lub ntiaj teb kev thov rau graphite electrodes hauv 2019 thiab 2020 yog 1376800 tons thiab 14723 lab tons raws li. Nws tau kwv yees tias tag nrho cov kev xav tau thoob ntiaj teb yuav nce ntxiv hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej, thiab nws xav tias yuav ncav cuag 2.1444 lab tons hauv 2025. Meanwhile, nyob rau hauv 2021 thiab 2022, lub ntiaj teb no cov khoom ntawm graphite electrodes yog ntau tshaj 267 thiab 16000 tons. Tom qab 2023, yuav muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv, nrog qhov sib txawv ntawm -17900 tons, 39000 tons thiab -24000 tons.

Hauv 2019 thiab 2020, qhov kev thov thoob ntiaj teb rau UHP graphite electrodes yog 9087000 tons thiab 986400 tons feem. Nws tau kwv yees tias lub ntiaj teb tag nrho cov kev thov yuav nce ntxiv nyob rau tsib xyoos tom ntej, thiab ncav cuag li 1.608 lab tons hauv 2025. Meanwhile, nyob rau hauv 2021 thiab 2022, lub ntiaj teb no cov khoom ntawm graphite electrodes yog ntau tshaj 775 thiab 61500 tons. Tom qab 2023, yuav muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv, nrog qhov sib txawv ntawm -08000 tons, 26300 tons thiab -67300 tons.

Los ntawm lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm 2020 mus rau lub ib hlis ntuj 2021, lub ntiaj teb no tus nqi ntawm ultra-high-power graphite electrode tau poob los ntawm 27000 / t mus rau 24000 / T. nws yog kwv yees hais tias lub taub hau tuam txhab tseem yuav ua tau ib tug profit ntawm 1922-2067 yuan / ton. ntawm tus nqi tam sim no. Xyoo 2021, lub ntiaj teb kev thov rau ultra-high-power graphite electrodes yuav nce ntxiv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov cua sov xa tawm yuav tsum txuas ntxiv rub qhov kev thov rau ultra-high-power graphite, thiab graphite electrode pib tus nqi yuav nce ntxiv. Nws cia siab tias tus nqi ntawm UHP graphite electrode nyob rau hauv 2021 yuav nce mus rau 26000 / t los ntawm lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thiab cov nyiaj tau los yuav nce mus rau 3922-4067 yuan / ton. Nrog rau kev nce ntxiv ntawm tag nrho cov kev thov rau ultra-siab zog graphite electrodes yav tom ntej, qhov nyiaj tau los yuav tau nce ntxiv.

Txij li thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj xyoo 2021, tus nqi thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob graphite electrode yog 11500-12500 yuan / ton. Raws li tus nqi tam sim no thiab tus nqi lag luam, cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob zoo tib yam yog kwv yees li -264-1404 yuan / ton, uas tseem nyob hauv lub xeev poob. Tus nqi tam sim no ntawm graphite electrode nrog lub zog zoo tib yam tau nce los ntawm 10000 yuan / ton hauv peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2020 txog 12500 yuan / T. nrog rau kev maj mam rov qab los ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog raws li txoj cai ntawm carbon neutralization, qhov kev thov rau cov hlau ua kom sov yog sai heev. nce, thiab kev noj cov seem hlau txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv, thiab qhov kev thov rau cov graphite electrode zoo tib yam kuj tseem yuav nce siab heev. Nws cia siab tias tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode nrog lub zog zoo tib yam yuav raug nce siab tshaj tus nqi hauv peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2021, thiab cov txiaj ntsig yuav raug pom. Nrog rau kev thov thoob ntiaj teb rau graphite electrodes ntawm lub zog dav dav txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv rau yav tom ntej, qhov nyiaj tau los yuav maj mam nthuav dav.

4. kev sib tw qauv ntawm graphite electrode kev lag luam hauv Suav teb

Qhov nruab nrab ncav cuag ntawm graphite electrode kev lag luam yog graphite electrode manufacturers, nrog rau cov lag luam ntiag tug raws li cov neeg koom. Tuam Tshoj tus graphite electrode ntau lawm suav txog li 50% ntawm lub ntiaj teb tso zis ntawm graphite electrodes. Raws li ib tug ua lag luam nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam graphite electrode, kev lag luam feem ntawm square carbon graphite electrode nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj yog ntau tshaj 20%, thiab lub peev xwm ntawm graphite electrode yog thib peb nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov khoom zoo, lub taub hau kev lag luam nyob rau hauv graphite electrode kev lag luam nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj muaj zog thoob ntiaj teb kev sib tw, thiab cov kev specifications ntawm cov khoom pib mus txog rau theem ntawm cov khoom zoo sib xws ntawm txawv teb chaws cov neeg sib tw. Muaj delamination nyob rau hauv lub lag luam graphite electrode. Kev ua lag luam ntawm ultra-high-power graphite electrode feem ntau yog nyob ntawm cov tuam txhab sab saum toj hauv kev lag luam, thiab plaub lub lag luam saum toj kawg nkaus suav nrog ntau dua 80% ntawm kev ua lag luam ntawm UHP graphite electrode kev ua lag luam, thiab cov concentration ntawm kev lag luam kuj tseem muaj. pom tseeb.

Hauv kev lag luam ultra-high graphite electrode kev lag luam, cov lag luam loj graphite electrode nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ncav cuag muaj zog sib txuas lus rau cov kev lag luam hauv qab steel, thiab xav kom cov neeg siv khoom hauv qab them nyiaj xa khoom yam tsis tau muab nyiaj rau lub sijhawm. Lub zog siab thiab lub zog zoo tib yam graphite electrodes muaj qhov kev ua haujlwm qis, kev sib tw ua lag luam hnyav thiab cov nqi sib tw tseem ceeb. Nyob rau hauv lub high-power thiab zoo tib yam lub hwj chim graphite electrode kev lag luam, ntsib lub steel-ua kev lag luam nrog siab concentration downstream, lub me thiab nruab nrab-sized graphite electrode tuam txhab uas muag muaj zog bargaining zog mus rau downstream, thiaj li yuav muab cov neeg muas zaub nrog lub sij hawm los yog txawm. txo tus nqi los sib tw rau kev ua lag luam. Tsis tas li ntawd, vim muaj kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig nruj, lub peev xwm ntawm cov lag luam nruab nrab yog qhov tsawg heev, thiab tag nrho cov peev txheej siv ntawm kev lag luam yog tsawg dua 70%. Qee lub lag luam txawm tshwm sim qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev txiav txim kom tso tseg kev tsim khoom tsis tas li. Yog hais tias txoj kev vam meej ntawm kev lag luam smelting steel, daj phosphorus thiab lwm yam khoom raw khoom downstream ntawm graphite electrode txo, qhov kev thov rau graphite electrode kev lag luam raug txwv, thiab tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode tsis nce ntau, qhov nce ntawm kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi yuav ua. kom muaj sia nyob ntawm cov lag luam me thiab nruab nrab tsis muaj kev sib tw tseem ceeb, thiab maj mam tawm hauv kev ua lag luam lossis tau txais los ntawm cov lag luam loj graphite electrode lossis steel lag luam.

Tom qab xyoo 2017, nrog rau kev nce siab ntawm cov txiaj ntsig hauv hluav taws xob ua hluav taws xob ua hluav taws xob, qhov kev thov thiab tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode rau hluav taws xob rau hluav taws xob ua hluav taws xob kuj tau nce sai. Cov txiaj ntsig tag nrho ntawm graphite electrode kev lag luam tau nce ntau heev. Cov tuam txhab lag luam hauv kev lag luam tau nthuav dav lawv cov khoom lag luam. Qee lub lag luam uas tau tawm ntawm kev ua lag luam tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm maj mam. Los ntawm tag nrho cov zis ntawm graphite electrode, qhov concentration ntawm kev lag luam tau poob qis. Noj cov square carbon ntawm graphite electrode ua piv txwv, nws tag nrho cov kev lag luam qhia tau poob los ntawm 30% nyob rau hauv 2016 mus txog 25% nyob rau hauv 2018. Txawm li cas los, raws li rau cov kev faib ntawm graphite electrode cov khoom, kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam muaj. tau txawv. Vim tias cov kev xav tau siab ntawm ultra-high-power graphite electrode, kev lag luam sib koom ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ultra-high-power yog ntxiv txhim kho los ntawm kev tso tawm cov peev txheej ntawm kev lag luam lub taub hau kev lag luam nrog cov kev siv zog sib xws, thiab plaub lub taub hau lag luam saum toj kawg nkaus. ntau tshaj 80% ntawm kev ua lag luam sib koom ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ultra-high-power. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob thiab lub zog siab graphite electrode nrog cov kev xav tau qis, kev sib tw hauv kev ua lag luam tau nce zuj zus vim qhov rov koom nrog cov lag luam me thiab nruab nrab nrog cov kev ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog thiab nthuav dav ntawm kev tsim khoom.

Tom qab ntau xyoo ntawm txoj kev loj hlob, los ntawm kev qhia txog technology ntawm graphite electrode ntau lawm, loj-scale graphite electrode tuam txhab nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj tau mastered lub core technology ntawm graphite electrode ntau lawm. Kev tsim cov thev naus laus zis thiab thev naus laus zis ntawm graphite electrode yog piv rau cov neeg sib tw txawv teb chaws, thiab nrog rau qhov zoo ntawm kev ua haujlwm siab, Tuam Tshoj graphite electrode tuam txhab tau nce ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev sib tw ua lag luam thoob ntiaj teb.

5. tswv yim peev

Thaum kawg ntawm cov khoom siv, qhov concentration ntawm graphite electrode kev lag luam tseem muaj chaw rau kev txhim kho, kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig thiab kev txwv ntau lawm nce qhov feem ntawm hluav taws xob rauv steelmaking, thiab tag nrho txoj kev loj hlob ntawm graphite electrode kev lag luam yog qhov zoo. Ntawm qhov kev thov sab, rau kev txhim kho cov khoom tsim tau thiab txo kev siv hluav taws xob, yav tom ntej 100-150 tons UHP EAF yog cov kev taw qhia tseem ceeb hauv kev loj hlob, thiab kev txhim kho ntawm UHP EAF yog cov qauv dav dav. Raws li ib qho ntawm cov khoom tseem ceeb ntawm UHP EAF, qhov kev thov ntawm qhov loj-scale ultra-high-power graphite electrode yuav tsum nce ntxiv.

Kev vam meej ntawm graphite electrode kev lag luam tau poob qis hauv ob xyoos dhau los. Kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov tuam txhab ua lag luam graphite electrode tau poob qis hauv 2020. Kev lag luam tag nrho yog nyob rau theem ntawm kev cia siab thiab qis qis. Txawm li cas los xij, peb ntseeg tias nrog kev txhim kho ntawm cov hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm kev lag luam thiab maj mam rov qab los ntawm tus nqi ntawm graphite electrode mus rau theem tsim nyog, kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov tuam txhab ua lag luam hauv kev lag luam yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo los ntawm kev thim rov qab ntawm cov graphite hauv qab. electrode lag luam. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, Tuam Tshoj muaj qhov chaw loj rau kev tsim cov txheej txheem luv luv steelmaking, uas yuav muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev tsim cov graphite electrode rau cov txheej txheem luv luv EAF. Nws tau pom zoo tias cov tuam txhab ua lag luam hauv thaj chaw ntawm graphite electrode yuav tsum tau tsom mus rau.

6. cov lus qhia txaus ntshai

Qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm hluav taws xob rauv steelmaking kev lag luam hauv Suav teb tsis yog raws li qhov xav tau, thiab tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw rau graphite electrode fluctuates heev.